Keep your umbrella hand today across Florida and into the weekend as we flip the calendar to August.
A few isolated areas could see up to 8 inches of rain.
On the bright side, the tropics continue to remain quiet and most areas are seeing some relief from the extreme heat that made itself at home across the northern tier of the state earlier this week.
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Saharan dust is helping keep the tropics quiet, but may make breathing difficult for some Florida residents.
The busiest portion of hurricane season arrives later this month and residents are advised to stay prepared, even if predictions are for a quiet hurricane season.
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The busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, with the peak occurring Sept. 10.
The next named storm in the Atlantic will be Cristobal. The third named storm in the Atlantic typically forms around Aug. 3, according to NOAA.
In the eastern Pacific, Genevieve has weakened into a tropical storm but swells continue to impact portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California.
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Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., July 31:
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
How long will tropics remain quiet around Florida?
The National Hurricane Center is predicting no tropical cyclone activity over the next seven days. That doesn’t mean something couldn’t pop up before then.
The third named storm in the Atlantic typically forms around Aug. 3, according to NOAA.
AccuWeather meteorologists said a “zone of waters surrounding Florida, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda remains in the spotlight that has perhaps the best chance of cooking up a tropical depression or tropical rainstorm later in the first week through the second week of August.”
“Waters are sufficiently warm in this region to foster tropical activity, and it appears wind shear will be relatively low for a time compared to most prior weeks so far this summer,'” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Genevieve weakens but threats continue for California
Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next several days, and are causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Saharan dust approaching Florida
“Another dust plume is expected to arrive in Florida at the very end of the week and into the weekend,” according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email Aug. 27.
“The dust is expected to increase in concentration late this weekend into early next week.
“It is still common at the start of August for large amounts of Saharan dust to move all the way across the Atlantic and even into the United States. Hazy sunshine and enhanced sunsets will be possible with this dust. This dust will also help to keep the main development region quiet for at least 10 days.”
National Hurricane Center tracking no disturbances, 3 tropical waves
There are no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. July 31, and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.
Forecasters are watching three tropical waves:
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for July 31, 2026
Western Panhandle: Thunderstorm chances increase July 31 through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Central Panhandle, Big Bend: A wet period of weather is on tap this weekend into midweek. Most likely rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches, mainly in the Big Bend counties.
Northeast Florida: Numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Aug. 3. Daily rounds of heavy downpours could result in localized flooding. Isolated storms may be strong to severe, with wind gusts up to 40-60mph.
East-central Florida: Above-normal coverage of showers and storms continues through the weekend. A few strong storms are forecast, capable of producing gusty winds up to around 45 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding.
South Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms July 31 and Aug. 1, favoring the Lake region. Models show a wetter pattern as moisture and instability continue to surge during the rest of the weekend
Southwest Florida: Marginal risk for heavy rain into the weekend with localized flooding possible.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Rain coming for some parts of Florida as cold front stalls
“A wet pattern is in store across northern Florida later this week,” DaSilva said.
“Starting Wednesday (July 29) and lasting through at least Sunday (Aug. 2), a stalled cold front is expected to meander near the Panhandle.
“This front will produce daily downpours and localized flooding. While the western Panhandle is drought free, the eastern Panhandle is in desperate need of rainfall. Residents will want to use caution as beneficial rain can come at the risk of flash flooding.
“Some areas in the Panhandle can get 2-4 inches, locally 6 inches of rain. The flooding risk across portions of the Panhandle can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.”
July 29 will be a “transition day as an atypical summertime cold front” moves south into the southeastern U.S., according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
A combination of factors means many Florida residents could see strong to severe thunderstorms July 29.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://pnj.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: NHC watching 3 tropical waves as busiest part of hurricane season nears
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Pensacola News Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
