When it comes to serving what’s left of his term, the big mystery swirling around north Florida Republican congressman Neal Dunn is: will he or won’t he?
It’s not an idle question. If he leaves early, the GOP’s thin majority to control the U.S. House falls further to 217-214 – the thinnest majority to control the chamber in nearly 100 years. The House hasn’t been this divided since 1930.
The rumors he would resign started early in the week of Feb. 9, soon swatted down by a spokesperson in his D.C. office who told the USA TODAY Network that the 72-year-old Panama City urologist and entrepreneur would indeed finish his term and leave Congress in January. The founder of the Bay Regional Cancer Center had announced Jan. 13 he would not seek reelection.
But by Feb. 11, Punchbowl News was reporting from the halls of Congress that Dunn was saying “no comment” to “repeated questions … on whether he planned to serve the remainder of his term.”
That led Jake Sherman, the news site’s founder, to post, “House Republican leadership believes that Neal Dunn is going to resign by July. I know Dunn is denying it. But the leadership thinks he’s gone in five months.”
POLITICO further reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson said he asked Dunn “to serve out his term amid concerns the Florida Republican might resign early.” Johnson told reporters he “encouraged him to stay and be a part of this, and I think he wants to do that.”
CNN, meanwhile, reported Dunn has been having health problems.
Dunn, a President Donald Trump loyalist who had his endorsement, has represented the 16-county 2nd Congressional District in north Florida for 10 years and is among a record number of 30 Republicans not seeking reelection in the 2026 election cycle.
In the current session of Congress, Dunn supported the election of Johnson as Speaker, President Donald Trump’s tax and spending overhaul known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, and to defund National Public Radio, PBS, and the U.S. Agency for International Development.
North Florida seat leans Republican
The conservative Heritage Foundation gives Dunn a lifetime voting score of 78%. There are currently four Republicans and three Democrats in the race to succeed him. The Cook Political Report rates the district as leaning toward the GOP by 8 points.
Florida law requires Gov. Ron DeSantis to schedule a primary and special election to fill a vacant congressional seat. Often such elections coincide with the existing scheduled elections. A request for comment is pending with DeSantis’ office. The regular primary and general elections already are set for August and November.
Complicating speculation about what may happen next are efforts by states to redistrict their congressional maps to gain a partisan advantage in Washington. A redrawn California map may produce five additional Democratic seats, for example.
DeSantis responded with a call for a special session in April for the Legislature to give the GOP a shot at winning additional Florida seats. Right now, no one knows what CD 2 will look like when an election is held.
Currently, the 16-county district extends from the Alabama border 200 miles south to the Steinhatchee River at Dixie County. Anchored by Tallahassee and Panama City, it’s the state’s least urbanized district, made up mostly of forests, nature preserves and farmlands.
Leon County, with the state’s capital of Tallahassee, contains the largest bloc of votes. In 2024, Leon voters accounted for 37% of the total vote. The next largest bloc is in Panama City and Bay County, which made up 24% of that vote.
The district’s math finds the four counties surrounding Tallahassee traditionally support Democratic candidates with 60% of the vote. The remaining counties back Republicans by the same margin. But Dunn demonstrated cross-partisan appeal over his five terms.
Since narrowly winning the GOP primary by 1,700 votes in 2016, after Democrat Gwen Graham vacated the seat to run for governor, Dunn won five general elections by more than 59%. In 2020, Democrats did not even bother to field a candidate.
Some reporting in this story was previously published. James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com. Follow on him X: @CallTallahassee. Jim Rosica is a member of the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jrosica@tallahassee.com. Follow him on X: @JimRosicaFL.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Neal Dunn potential resignation could hurt GOP House majority
Reporting by James Call and Jim Rosica, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
