Among the Democratic Party’s victory streak, Emily Gregory’s flip of the formerly Republican Florida House District 87 seat is noteworthy because it includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and club.
Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed rival John Maples by just over 2 percentage points in a contest that drew 33,429 voters. The seat became available because its former incumbent, Mike Caruso, resigned after Gov. Ron DeSantis named him to serve as the county’s clerk of courts.
But is Gregory’s win notable just because it was Trump’s district? Or does it fit into significant trends that have been playing out across the country since last year?
Here are five things to know.
Who is Emily Gregory?
Gregory is a small business owner from Jupiter. She defeated John Maples, a Republican who previously held public office as a town council member in Lake Clarke Shores.
Democrats and affiliated groups had hailed her as an example of the new breed of candidates they seek to field in the November midterm elections — and beyond.
“This race reaffirms that voters are demanding change and ushering in a wave of leaders who will actually show up for their communities — rejecting Trumpism and the status quo,” wrote Run for Something co-founder and president Amanda Litman in a prepared statement after the results were in.
“We’re thrilled to see Emily win this seat and proud to have worked by her side to help make it happen.”
Race a stunner, but not an anomaly
Caruso was elected to the District 87 seat in a landslide on Nov. 5, 2024, in a contest in which he won by almost 20 points.
Trump won the district by 11 points that year. Maples had Trump’s backing. On March 23, the president posted in all caps “JOHN MAPLES HAS MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!” in a lengthy post. He also cast a vote, presumably for Maples, via a mail-in ballot after railing against ballots not cast in person in recent weeks.
While Gregory won the state House seat, Democrat Brian Nathan stood poised to upset his GOP opponent in a Florida Senate race in the Tampa area as well.
Moreover, in December, Eileen Higgins won the mayoral seat in Miami, the first time a Democrat had won the top spot in the mostly Cuban-American and Latino city in three decades.
Special election post-mortems query: Who did independent voters back?
Polls and election results across the United States have shown that voters not registered with a political party have been siding with Democrats in large numbers, reversing a trend from 2024.
In Palm Beach County, and Florida overall, Republican candidates in the Trump era have drawn sizeable shares of independent voters to roll up landslide after landslide.
Will the March 24 results show the GOP lost ground with this pivotal voting bloc?
Trump approval rating keeps sinking
A Reuters/Ipsos survey released March 24 showed the president’s approval rating at 36% with 62% of respondents disapproving.
In a network interview earlier on election day, Gregory said the president was not a factor “for me” in the contest and that she had been focused on cost-of-living issues.
GOP says not so fast
After the results were in, Florida House Republican Campaign Committee Chair Sam Garrison pointed out Republican candidates won two other House races.
They are Hilary Holley in House District 51 and Samantha Scott in House District 52. The Republican Party still counts on super majorities in the state House and Senate. And the party enjoys an advantage of almost 1.5 million voters going into the November vote.
As for the Gregory victory, Garrison, the speaker-designate said the GOP is focused on the fall vote.
“Today’s loss stings, but it does not deter him or us,” Garrison wrote in a prepared statement. “We will learn from today’s results and see you in November.”
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Emily Gregory’s win a stunner, but not an anomaly for Democrats, GOP
Reporting by Antonio Fins, Palm Beach Post / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
