Mike Duggan let my mom off the hook.
Journalists are told early in their training: “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.”
So, even though I was pretty sure mom had said she planned to vote for the former Detroit mayor in his bid for governor, I called her on the way to Duggan’s hastily-arranged press conference to let her know the first and — as far as I can tell — only independent candidate in Michigan’s history that seemed to have a chance to win, was dropping out.
Good thing I called.
Mom told me she was only thinking of voting for Hizzoner. But she was concerned he would be a spoiler.
A few minutes later, Duggan told a room full of reporters, photographers, campaign workers and a few interested parties — and by that I mean individuals, not Democratic or Republican poohbahs: “We don’t feel like there is a path forward.
“And I never ran to be a spoiler.”
Duggan’s decision, which he pondered Saturday and finalized Wednesday afternoon, will have wide-ranging ramifications for people and institutions throughout Michigan. Some of them are obvious, others surprising.
While mom and Mike plot their next moves, let’s you and I take stock of whose stock is rising and whose stock is falling in the wake of Duggan’s departure.
Winners
Every gubernatorial candidate — starting with Democrats Jocelyn Benson and Chris Swanson — are the prime beneficiaries.
In the short term, Swanson, the Genesee County sheriff, stands to gain the most because Democrats who consider Benson too progressive no longer have another option who is not a Republican. The smart money still says Benson, Michigan’s two-term Secretary of State, will run away with the Democratic nomination.
The Duggan denouement will really boost Benson after the Aug. 4 primary when she won’t have to compete against him for votes, union endorsements or campaign contributions.
Republican gubernatorial candidates will get a bounce from Duggan’s departure, too. Not just because Duggan said his campaign expected to get 20% of the vote from each party, but because a lot of the most conservative business leaders who have already plowed plenty into Duggan’s campaign are more likely to make their next check out to a Republican rather than a Democrat.
GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Cox, who worked with Duggan in the Wayne County Prosecutor’s office before Cox was elected Attorney General in 2002, could scoop up some support from members of the so-called Catholic Central Mafia who otherwise might have felt beholden to Duggan. (Duggan and Cox both graduated from Detroit Catholic Central, which has famously loyal alumni.)
Michigan state Democratic Party Chairman Curtis Hertel may be one of the biggest winners, even though his name won’t appear on any ballots.
For months, Hertel has waged a one-man war against Duggan to try to check the rise of the former mayor. Duggan said it was the war on Iran and rising gas prices that changed the playing field for him, but Hertel deserves some credit for dogging Duggan while Democrats waited to chose a gubernatorial nominee who could pick up the cudgel.
Democrats who may have owed Duggan a favor (or two), and who declined to endorse him, also are likely breathing easier this week.
The Rev. Horace Sheffield III, whose daughter Mary won Duggan’s support in the race to replace him as mayor, has got to be feeling pretty good that he stood firm with the Democrats while Duggan was still in the governor’s race.
Detroit Mayor Mary Sheffield, who dodged questions about whether she would return Duggan’s favor and endorse him for governor, looks pretty smart for keeping her political powder dry. While it would have been very poor manners not to endorse Duggan, Mayor Sheffield may have found it awkward to ask Michigan’s next governor for help if Democrats held onto the governorship.
We may never know what, if anything, she planned to do. And that’s probably just the way she likes it.
Democratic candidates throughout Michigan also owe Duggan a debt of gratitude. While Hizzoner has made explaining that you can vote straight-ticket AND vote for him without spoiling your ballot one of his talking points as he barnstormed the state, that’s the kind of wonky stuff voters are likely to forget when they enter the ballot box.
And confusion over whether one wrong choice will negate an entire ballot was more likely to impact Democrats, who are generally more likely to vote a straight ticket.
Losers
If Duggan were writing this column, he likely would start our list of losers with “the Good People of the Great State of Michigan who are fed up with the two parties fighting with each other instead of working together to solve problems like how to improve education and create more affordable housing.”
But since he’s taking a well-deserved afternoon off, I’ll start with: “Anyone who wrote a check to support Duggan’s campaign.”
First, there’s the money they’ve already spent.
Next, there’s the money they’re going to spend trying to make amends with one of the other candidates who are still in the race.
To Duggan’s credit, he said one of the reasons he dropped out is because he couldn’t honestly tell donors who were still willing to invest in his campaign that he still believed he could win. Those folks should beware, because there are half a dozen other candidates who still have no reservations about telling anyone who will listen that they will be backing a winner, if only they would add another zero or two to their check before signing on the dotted line.
Advertising salespeople at television and radio stations, as well as social media platforms, who stood to rake in 50% more than they will with only two gubernatorial candidates running all the way til the Nov. 3 general election also are weeping bitter tears today.
Before you accuse me of leaving newspapers off this list, sign up for a subscription. You’ll find very little political advertising on our pages. The good news is that, instead of finding paid content telling you how great the candidates are, you’ll find objective reporting telling you what the candidates don’t want you to know.
The Detroit Regional Chamber, which for the past year has acted as the house organ for the Duggan campaign, has got to be reeling as it wonders what to do next. The chamber’s annual policy conference last year on Mackinac Island was as close as a candidate can get to a coronation. Just about the only thing the chamber left off its “all-Duggan, all the time” agenda was “Mayor Mike Duggan’s Secret Fudge Recipe.”
The chamber also has been paying for plenty of polls used to herald Duggan’s viability as an independent candidate. The chamber welcomes movers and shakers (and pesky reporters) back to Mackinac Island next week. This year’s agenda has a more healthy balance of candidates, but you can bet there will be a lot of face-saving going on behind the scenes.
Eddie Duggan, and everyone who endorsed the former mayor or took a job with his independent campaign, may be wondering whether their resumes will even get a cursory glance from Democrats or Republicans in the foreseeable future.
Eddie Duggan, the mayor’s son, was building a career as a Democratic operative when he broke ranks to lead dear ol’ dad’s upstart campaign. Duggan also lured some Republican officials and operatives to his cause. Talent almost always rises, but survivors can expect some awkward questions at the start of their next job interview.
Go Blue?
One of Duggan’s few known hobbies, when he’s not totally immersed in the machinations of government and politics, is University of Michigan sports.
Duggan is a proud U-M alum, and the Wolverines are looking for a new president.
As a veteran of Wayne County and Detroit politics and government, Duggan is used to dealing with dysfunctional institutions with budget problems, cheaters, feckless elected officials and on-going investigations. So, there may be no more qualified candidate on earth to lead any of Michigan’s largest institutions of higher learning than Duggan.
But Duggan said Thursday he has had no conversations with anyone from the university.
He said he doesn’t know what he’s going to do next, and I believe him.
I’m more interested in who mom is thinking of voting for now.
But I’m pretty sure she still has a drawer full of wooden spoons, so along with those of you wondering what Duggan’s next move will be, we’ll just have to wait until they’re good and ready.
M.L. Elrick is a Pulitzer Prize- and Emmy Award-winning investigative reporter, director of student investigative reporting program Eye On Michigan, and host of the ML’s Soul of podcast. Contact him at mlelrick@freepress.com or follow him on X at @elrick, Facebook at ML Elrick and Instagram at ml_elrick.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Mike Duggan’s campaign crisis created opportunities. But for whom?
Reporting by M.L. Elrick, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
