• What: Michigan State vs. Duke
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 85 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 193 (Duke broadcast).
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 8-0 and entered the week ranked No. 7 in the Associated Press, No. 8 in the USA TODAY Coaches poll and No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Duke is 9-0 and ranked No. 4 in both major polls and No. 3 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -1.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 744-302 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Duke — Jon Scheyer is 98-22 in his fourth season as a head coach, all with the Blue Devils.
• Series: Duke leads 15-4 all-time, having won the last two meetings — in the 2023 Champions Classic and the 2022 NCAA tournament second round. Before that, MSU had won two of three in the series, including the famed Elite Eight game in 2019 in Washington D.C. This is the second meeting since Scheyer became head coach of the Blue Devils.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 9.6
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 14.3
F (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.3
G (2) Kur Teng (6-4) 6.1
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 12.3
Duke
C (21) Patrick Ngongba (6-11) 12.6
F (12) Cameron Boozer (6-9) 23.6
SF (14) Nikolas Khamenia (6-8) 6.2
G (3) Isaiah Evans (6-6) 12.6
G (1) Caleb Foster (6-5) 8.9
• MSU update: The Spartans are 8-0 for the first time in 10 seasons, having beaten Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and, on Tuesday, Iowa in their Big Ten opener. The last three of those wins were by 17, 16 and 19 points, respectively. As impressive as the Spartans have been, they have caught most of their best opponents at the right time and none of them yet in a true road game. This matchup with Duke, while in the friendly confines of Breslin Center, is probably the best test of MSU’s ceiling yet. The Spartans so far have been elite in a couple important areas — defensive efficiency, where they’re No. 3 nationally, per Kenpom, and offensive rebounding percentage, where at 42.4%, they’re No. 7 in the sport. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the nation in assists at 9.9 per game. Power forward Jaxon Kohler is fourth in the Big Ten in rebounds, averaging 9.9 per outing. MSU will have freshman Cam Ward back for this game, Tom Izzo said Thursday, after Ward sat out the Iowa game with a sprained wrist suffered early against North Carolina on Thanksgiving Day.
MORE: Couch: It’s time to change how we think about Jeremy Fears Jr. and Michigan State’s basketball team
• Duke update: The unbeaten Blue Devils have played a formidable schedule, with wins over Texas, Kansas, Arkansas and Florida — a one-point home win on Tuesday. The only common opponent is Arkansas, which Duke beat 80-71 in what was a competitive game on a neutral court. Duke’s only true road game to this point was at Army, so this will be a different environment than anything the Blue Devils have faced. Still, they’ve been elite in a number of areas. They’re top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per Kenpom. They’re No. 1 in effective field goal percentage defense, holding teams to 41.4% on 2-point tries and under 30% from beyond the arc. And, on offense, Duke is shooting a whopping 64.7% inside the 3-point arc. Freshman Cam Boozer is the No. 1-rated player in the country by Kenpom and it’s not that close.
• Matchup analysis: Duke might not have Cooper Flagg anymore, but this is still a team that plays position-less basketball as well as anyone in the college game, running a lot of its offense through its frontcourt of freshman forward Cam Boozer and sophomore center Patrick Ngongba. Boozer is the star here, though. He has the strength to score on the block, the quickness and skill to get downhill on the drive and the shooting ability to hurt you beyond the arc. He’s a wicked matchup for anybody. I can see MSU trying a number of options to defend him. Ultimately, it’ll be a team effort. The key to beating Duke, I think, is to not let anyone else really get going, especially 6-foot-6 guard Isaiah Evans. Duke has more depth than most teams in college basketball. The Blue Devils have quality nine deep.
MORE: Couch: Divine Ugochukwu showed signs Tuesday of being the player MSU basketball needs him to be. He needed it, too.
• Prediction: Duke is one of the best few teams in college basketball so far and a legitimate national championship contender, so MSU beating the Blue Devils would do a lot to validate the Spartans as a contender themselves. I think Duke has a more talented roster top to bottom and will have the best player on the court in Cam Boozer. But to pick against this MSU team now is to ignore how it has bullied other talented teams with less experience — similar to Duke — throughout the first month of the season. And to pick against the Spartans at home would be to ignore what we’ve been seeing.
• Make it: MSU 77, Duke 74
MORE: Couch: Predicting Michigan State’s basketball season – Arkansas through Duke, the Big Ten and March Madness
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball vs. Duke tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
