The brackets are set, with both Michigan and Michigan State basketball now knowing their paths to the Final Four.
The Wolverines, ranked No. 3 in the newest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region and will face the winner of UMBC and Howard in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday in Buffalo, New York.
The No. 8 Spartans, meanwhile, got the No. 3 seed in the East region and will face the 14-seed North Dakota State in the first round of the tournament, also in Buffalo on Thursday.
Michigan is looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2018, losing as a 3-seed to Villanova in the championship in San Antonio.
The Spartans last reached the Final Four in 2019, where they fell as a 2-seed to Texas Tech in Minneapolis.
But do college basketball experts think either team will make it to Indianapolis and the 2026 Final Four?
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We’ll run through what the experts are saying about Michigan, Michigan State and which of the two has a better chance of making it further in the tournament.
Michigan March Madness bracket reaction, analysis
Michigan’s loss in the Big Ten Tournament final did not seem to affect its standing as a No. 1 seed as the Wolverines got the top seed in the Midwest region. The Wolverines will face the winner of UMBC and Howard, playing in a First Four matchup to determine who advances to the Round of 64.
CBS college basketball analyst Clark Kellogg says Michigan is “vulnerable” in the NCAA Tournament, partly due to the season-ending injury to guard L.J. Cason. Kellogg added he would pick 3-seed Virginia to come out of the region over the Wolverines.
ESPN’s Jay Bilas shares Kellogg’s skepticism, predicting Michigan to lose to 2-seed Iowa State in the Elite Eight.
ESPN’s Seth Greenberg has a little more faith in the Wolverines, however. He picked them to win the national championship – over the Spartans in the final game, no less.
According to NCAA selection committee chair Keith Gill, Michigan was the No. 2 overall seed until the final of the Big Ten tournament, where Michigan lost to Purdue. The loss allowed Arizona to hop the Wolverines to the No. 2 overall seed, meaning the Wolverines fell to No. 3 overall.
Michigan State March Madness bracket reaction, analysis
MSU was widely expected to get a No. 2 seed, even after its quarterfinal loss to UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament. However, Purdue’s unexpected run to become Big Ten Tournament champions may have knocked the Spartans from that No. 2 seed, as Michigan State was revealed to get a No. 3 seed in the East region.
The Spartans will face 14-seed North Dakota State in Buffalo on Thursday afternoon.
By one metric, the East might be the most difficult region in the tournament. The top-four seeds in the region have an aggregate overall seeding of 31, which is the strongest of all four regions. The Midwest region, for example, has an aggregate overall seeding of 36, with No. 3 overall seed Michigan topping the region.
ESPN’s Jay Bilas has a lot of faith in the Spartans, however, calling them the “most likely 3-seed to make the Final Four.” Later on, Bilas picked MSU to make the national championship game but lose to Arizona.
ESPN’s Seth Greenberg also picked the Spartans to make the final, but he chose Michigan as his national champion.
It’ll be a tough road ahead for the Spartans, with overall No. 1 seed Duke, 2-seed UConn and 4-seed Kansas all in the region (not to mention 7-seed UCLA, which knocked MSU out of the Big Ten Tournament).
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: March Madness experts react, predict Michigan and MSU basketball fate
Reporting by Christian Romo, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
