Not many picked Michigan football to go on the road to beat Nebraska after having lost, 24-13, at Oklahoma in Week 2. Yet, the Wolverines went to Lincoln and beat up the Huskers in the trenches en route toa 30-27 win that wasn’t as close as the score indicated (thanks to a late touchdown by Nebraska, along with multiple self-inflicted mistakes by the maize and blue).
But what about the rest of the schedule?
ESPN FPI looks forward and gives something of an advanced analytic projection of who will win each game. The Wolverines are currently on a bye week as they wait to face Wisconsin next Saturday, but ESPN has predictions for each game in terms of chances that Michigan has to win each game.
Here’s how it plays out:
Oct. 4 – Wisconsin (home)
Michigan’s chances to win: 89%
Last matchup: Win at Wisconsin, 2021
Oct. 11 – USC (away)
Michigan’s chances to win: 30.4%
Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024
Oct. 18 – Washington (home)
Michigan’s chances to win: 74.1%
Last matchup: Loss at Washington, 2024
Oct. 25 – MSU (away)
Michigan’s chances to win: 85.0%
Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024
Nov. 1 – Purdue (home)
Michigan’s chances to win: 94.1%
Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2023
Nov. 15 – Northwestern (away)
Michigan’s chances to win: 92.1%
Last matchup: Win in Ann Arbor, 2024
Nov. 22 – Maryland (away)
Michigan’s chances to win: 78.6%
Last matchup: Win at Maryland, 2023
Nov. 29 – Ohio State (home)
Michigan’s chances to win: 42.3%
Last matchup: Win at Ohio State, 2024
Conclusion
To take these results on their face, that would make Michigan 9-3 on the season, with a split in the rivalry matchups. Michigan would be 4-2 on the road and 5-1 at home.
This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: ESPN FPI projects Michigan football’s win probabilities for every 2025 regular season game
Reporting by Isaiah Hole, Wolverines Wire / Wolverines Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
