Increased cow numbers and more milk per cow nudged March milk production higher for the 13th month in a row. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s preliminary data showed March output at 20.391 billion pounds, up 2.3% from March 2025, and followed a 2.9% gain in February. The 24-state March total hit 19.591 billion, up 2.4%.
February output was revised up 7 million pounds to 18.262 billion, still 2.9% above a year ago. The 24-state total was revised down 13 million pounds, to 17.546 billion, up 3.0% instead of the 3.1% originally reported.
Cow numbers totaled 9.621 million head, up 8,000 from the February count, which was revised down 2,000 head, but was up 187,000 or 2% from a year ago. The 24-state count, at 9.183 million, was up 8,000 from February’s total, which was revised down 8,000 head, and 188,000 or 2.1% above a year ago.
March output per cow averaged 2,119 pounds in the 50 states, up 7 pounds or 0.3% from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,133 pounds, was also up 7 pounds or 0.3% from 2025. The February average was revised up 1 pound in the 50 states and was unchanged in the 24 states.
StoneX says “Milk production per cow was weaker than expected with growth slowing from 2.4% back in November (lapping over bird flu impacts) to just up 0.3% in March, marking the fourth month of decline. Fat and protein in the milk were up from last year and from last month, however fat content is still below trend. All together this puts component adjusted milk production up 3.3%, says StoneX.
California producers put just under 3.6 billion pounds of milk in the tank, up 28 million or 0.8% from a year ago, following a 2.2% gain in February. Cow numbers were down 3,000 head while output per cow was up 20 pounds from a year ago.
Wisconsin milk totaled 2.85 billion pounds, up 72 million or 2.6%, which followed a 3.3% gain in February. Cow numbers were up 27,000 with a 10-pound gain.
Idaho was up 51 million pounds or 3.4% on 24,000 more cows. Output per cow unchanged. Indiana was up 4.6% thanks to 8,000 more cows and a 10-pound gain per cow. Kansas had the biggest percentage gain, up 100 million pounds or 25.4% from a year ago, on 47,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow.
Michigan was up 3.6% on 16,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Minnesota was up 2.4%, on 11,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged.
New Mexico, one of four states showing a decline in milk output, was down 3.2%, due to 9,000 fewer cows milked. Output per cow was up 10 pounds however.
New York was up 2.1% on 18,000 more cows, though output per cow was down 15 pounds. Ohio was up 1.2% on 2,000 more cows and 10 pounds more per cow. Oregon was up 6.2% on 7,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow.
Pennsylvania was down 2.3% due to 12,000 fewer cows milked, though output per cow was up 5 pounds. South Dakota was up 6.9%, on 15,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow. Texas produced 1.6 billion pounds, up 74 million or 4.7% from a year ago, thanks to 31,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow.
Vermont was up 0.5%, on a 10-pound gain per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged. Washington was down 5.8%, on 15,000 fewer cows, though output per cow was up 5 pounds.
Dairy culling remains above a year ago. USDA’s latest data shows 50,100 cows sent to slaughter the week ending April 11, up 2,800 or 5.9% from a year ago. Year to date, 837,800 head had been culled, 47,600 or 6% above a year ago. The 2025 Livestock Summary reported 2.641 million head of dairy cattle were slaughtered in all of 2025, down 84.1 million head or 3.1% from 2024.
The May Federal order Class I base milk price was announced by the USDA at $20.15 per hundredweight, up $1.49 from April, $1.78 above May 2025, and the highest Class I price since March 2025. It equates to $1.73 per gallon, up from $1.58 a year ago, and put the five-month Class I average at $17.07, down from $20.12 at this time a year ago, and compares to $18.58 in 2024.
Chinese dairy imports were higher in March. China Customs Statistics showed cheese imports totaled 51.8 million pounds, up 40.6% from March 2025, an all-time high on a 30-day adjusted basis, according to HighGround Dairy’s analysis, and “surpassed 22,000 metric tons in a single month for the first time ever.” New Zealand benefited the most, according HighGround, with sales up 40% from a year ago. Year to date China’s overall cheese imports are up 33.9%.
Butter imports, at 32.1 million pounds, were up 38.8% from a year ago, and up 4.4% year to date, and primarily came from New Zealand, says HighGround Dairy.
Chinese whole milk powder imports soared to 127.8 million pounds, up 34.1% from a year ago, highest volume on a 30-day adjusted basis since January 2025, says HighGround Dairy. Imports year to date however are down 8.5%. Skim milk powder imports totaled 43.2 million pounds, down 23.8% from a year ago.
Whey product imports fell to 112.1 million pounds, down 25% from a year ago and down 13.1% year to date. HighGround Dairy blamed China’s aggressive push to downsize its hog population. The government is attempting to support pork prices and that effort has impacted U.S. sales. China’s U.S. purchases were down 6% from 2025.
HighGround Dairy also reported that China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs confirmed the country’s first-ever outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in April.
In other trade news, fat weighed on the Global Dairy Trade auction last week. The weighted average was down 2.7%, following a 3.4% decline on April 7. Volume fell to 33.1 million pounds, down from 36.4 million on April 7. The average metric ton price slipped to $4,143, down from $4,228 on April 7.
Butter led the declines again, down 7.9% following an 8.1% decline on April 7. Anhydrous milkfat was down 9.6% after dropping 7.1%. Whole milk powder was off 0.6%, after slipping 0.7%, while skim milk powder was up 3.2%, after dropping 1.6% last time. Cheddar was up 1.1%, after dropping 3.1%, and mozzarella was down 3.1%, following a 6.2% dip. Lactose was up 7.2%, after slipping 0.6%.
StoneX says the Global Dairy Trade 80% butterfat butter price equates to $2.5233 per pound, down from $2.7354 on April 7, and compares to Chicago Mercantile Exchange butter which closed Friday at $1.7050. Cheddar equated to $2.1765, down from $2.1617 last time, and compares to Friday’s Chicago Mercantile Exchange block cheddar at $1.645. Global Dairy Trade skim milk powder averaged $1.5641 per pound, up from $1.5337, while whole milk powder averaged $1.6629, down from $1.6724, while Chicago Mercantile Exchange Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at eye popping $2.26 per pound.
North Asia purchases increased from the last event, says StoneX, and took some market share back from Southeast Asia. “North Asia’s strength in purchase volume led to the region once again posing the largest market share of any buying group. The increase came largely from [skim milk powder] and [whole milk powder] purchases. Middle East, Europe, and African purchases also bounced back from the last event,” says StoneX.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange block cheddar closed Friday at $1.645 per pound, up 6.75 cents on the week, highest Chicago Mercantile Exchange price since April 7, but 5.5 cents below a year ago. The barrels, which held at $1.575 for eight consecutive sessions, gained 4 cents Thursday hitting $1.615, and stayed there Friday, 9 cents below a year ago. There were 43 sales of block on the week, highest in 11 weeks, and no barrel.
Central region milk output is steady, according to Dairy Market News. Spot trades were lighter and prices ranged $5-under to flat Class at midweek. Cheese production is strong in the region. Retail cheese demand was unchanged and food service sales somewhat light. Export demand was mixed with some reports of steadily moving loads, while others reported lighter interest.
Milk output continues to provide cheese makers with ample volumes in the West. Cheese production is generally steady seven days a week. Cream cheese production is also very active. Domestic demand is steady, but demand from retail and other food industry stakeholders is reported to be more robust than demand from food service. Exports are steady to strong, according to Dairy Market News.
Lots of butter made its way to Chicago last week, 94 loads to be exact, 49 on Monday alone. The price climbed to $1.735 per pound Monday, then headed south and fell to $1.6450 Thursday, lowest since Feb. 10. It closed Friday at $1.705, 1.5 cents higher on the week, but still 57.5 cents below a year ago.
Cream production is strong in the Central region with strong demand from Class II and Class III processors, says Dairy Market News. Butter production is strong and processors are running busy schedules. Retail butter demand is steady, but contacts report light food service sales. Export interest is softening somewhat.
Spring milk and cream output is sufficiently accommodating butter producers in the West. Churns are active seven days a week. Domestic butter demand is steady to lighter. Demand from international buyers is steady as U.S. prices continue to hold export interest, according to Dairy Market News.
You’d almost think nonfat dry milk was coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. The price climbed to a record high $2.26 per pound Thursday and stayed there Friday, up 6 cents on the week, and $1.0725 above a year ago on nine sales.
The Daily Dairy Report’s Sarina Sharp wrote in the April 17 Milk Producer Council newsletter that California dryers are “running as hard as possible. As the spring flush overwhelms processing capacity, a major California cooperative is incentivizing producers to rein in milk output with steep discounts on any milk shipped above their monthly base volume. Last year, avian influenza dragged down California milk output and national [nonfat dry milk] and skim milk powder (SMP) production slumped to a 12-year low.”
“The California comeback matters,” Sharp says. “Last year, despite bird flu, the Golden State accounted for 44% of US [nonfat dry milk] output. Now that California’s cows are healthy and happy again, production is up. US milk powder output topped 2024 and 2025 volumes in January and February.” She warns however, that, while U.S. powder is going to Mexico, with U.S. prices at record levels, our best customer may opt for other suppliers. Mexico typically consumes about one-third of U.S. powder production, according to Sharp.
Dry whey inched up to 70.5 cents per pound Wednesday, gave back a penny Thursday, and closed Friday at 69.75 cents per pound, 0.75 cents higher on the week, and 19.25 cents above a year ago. There were two sales on the week.
“Dairy margins were largely flat over the first half of April as lower Class III milk prices were largely offset by higher Class IV values while feed costs were mixed.” That is according to the latest Margin Watch from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging, LLC. The Margin Watch stated “Milk futures continue to diverge between classes as new cheese processing plants and higher cheese vat returns combined with an increased demand for fluid skim milk have diverted more milk supply away from nonfat dry milk (NDM) production starting last year.
“Fourth quarter NDM production declined 5.7% from 2024 while exports of NDM increased 5.6% which led to January 2026 ending stocks dropping 29% from last year to 214.8 million pounds. The tight supplies have helped fuel a Class IV rally that have widened the premium over Class III by $1.35 per [hundredweight] in February and $2.78 per [hundredweight] in March.”
The Margin Watch also reported the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates data, adding that due to increased cheese processing capacity, much of the increase in milk production has gone to cheese. While strong export demand has helped to absorb the added supply, domestic demand has waned as consumers begin to limit their spending and are choosing to eat out less often. Continued strength in export demand may prove challenging, the Margin Watch warned.
Last week’s USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that 11% of the U.S. corn crop was in the ground, as of the week ending April 19, same as a year ago, but 2% ahead of the five-year average. Soybean plantings were at 12%, 5% ahead of a year ago, and 7% ahead of the five-year average.
The National Milk Producers Federation urges farmers to contact their elected representatives as the House gears up to vote on the 2026 Farm Bill. The National Milk Producers Federation says “The bill is historically a comprehensive, bipartisan legislative package that is renewed every five years and sets federal agriculture and nutrition policy. The most recent farm bill expired in 2023 but has been extended through Sept. 30. While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law last year, included updates to several farm bill programs such as Dairy Margin Coverage, many critical policy changes were not included.” Congress must now pass a full, comprehensive bill.
The National Milk Producers Federation also blasted the Food and Drug Administration last week for its “continued failure to enforce its own rules on the proper labeling of plant-based alternative products,” calling it a “public health problem.” It argued “Plant-based imitation products that are not nutritionally equivalent to real milk and do not deliver dairy’s unique nutrient package for too long have been allowed to imply to consumers that they are just like the real thing, creating a public health problem that FDA commissioners have acknowledged over the past decade.”
Meanwhile, the USDA confirmed that H5N1 has been detected on dairy farms in Idaho, the first new cases in dairy cattle since Dec. 13. Initial testing suggests the virus was circulating locally, rather than the result of a new spillover event.
The battle with New World screwworm was enhanced with the announcement April 17 of a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins says the facility “puts NWS sterile fly production in American hands, so we do not have to rely on other countries for the best offensive measure to push screwworm away from our borders.”
This article originally appeared on Farmers Advance: Consumers are limiting their spending, choosing to eat out less often
Reporting by Lee Mielke, Farmers’ Advance / Farmers Advance
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
