April 14 (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday issued three scenarios for the global GDP growth path in 2026 and 2027 amid massive uncertainty over the war in the Middle East, with its main “reference forecast” assuming a short-lived conflict and energy price disruptions fading relatively quickly.
Two other scenarios envision longer and deeper conflicts, including a middle “adverse scenario” and the much-worse “severe scenario.”
The following table shows the key parameters of the three outlooks: estimated global GDP growth, average oil prices per barrel and headline inflation.
IMF Scenario 2026 2027
REFERENCE FORECAST
Global GDP growth 3.1% 3.2%
Oil price average $82 $75
Headline inflation 4.4% 3.7%
ADVERSE SCENARIO
Global GDP growth 2.5% 3.0%
Oil price average $100 $75
Headline inflation 5.4% 3.9%
SEVERE SCENARIO
Global GDP growth 2.0% 2.2%
Oil price average $110 $125
Headline inflation 5.80% 6.10%
(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
