Factbox-Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on weaker Middle East output

April 27 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower oil production from the Middle East.

The bank estimated that Brent crude prices will average $90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will be at $83 in the final quarter of 2026.

Goldman projected that exports through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise by the end of June, later than its previous estimate of mid-May, alongside a slower recovery in Gulf oil production.

Citi has raised its Brent oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, with its base case forecast at $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively.

Under a bull-case scenario, the bank assumes oil flows through the strait remain disrupted through the end of June and sees Brent prices spiking to $150 a barrel.

Oil edged higher on Monday as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, keeping global supplies tight. [O/R]

Brokerage/ Brent WTI  Forecasts Price

Agency as of  Targets

  2026 2027 2026 202    

7

Goldman $90 $85 $83 $80 April 26, Raises 4Q

Sachs ($83 ($80 ($78 ($7 2026 2026

previo previo previ 5 Brent, WTI

usly) usly) ously pre forecast

) vio to $90/$83

usl

y)

Citi $91 $75 $83 $70 April 26, Raises

2026 Brent

price

forecast

to

$110/bbl

in Q2’26,

$95/bbl in

Q3’26 and

$80/bbl in

Q4’26

ANZ $92 $76 $88 $76 April 9,  

2026

UBS – – – – April 13, Expects

2026 prices 

to trade

>$150/bbl

if flows

through

Hormuz

remain

disrupted.

Sees Brent

at

$100/bbl

by

end-June

2026, $95

by

end-Sept,

$90 by

end-Dec

Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27  If the war

3 .50 continues

until end

of June,

oil prices

may rise

to $200

Morgan – $80 – – March 24, Expects

Stanley ($70 2026 Brent

previo prices to

usly) remain

above

$80/bbl

for the

rest of

2026

J.P Morgan – $72 – – March 20, Expects

2026 Brent

prices

averaging

$100/bbl 

in Q2’26,

$90/bbl in

Q3’26 and

$80/bbl in

Q4’26

Standard $85.50         Expects

Chartered ($70 Brent to

previo average

usly) $78/bbl in

Q1’26, and

$98/bbl in

Q2’26

BofA $77.50 $66 – $61 March 16, Expects

($61 ($62 ($5 2026 Brent to

previo previo 9 average

usly) usly) pre $80/bbl in

vio Q2’26, but

usl average

y) $76/bbl in

Q3’26

Barclays $85 – – – March 13, But if the

(from 2026 Strait of

$65 Hormuz

previo takes 4-6

usly) weeks to

The normalise,

foreca says Brent

st could

assume climb to

s the $100/bbl

Strait

of

Hormuz

normal

ises

in 2-3

weeks 

BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects

($67 2026 Brent to

previo average

usly) $67/bbl

and

$69/bbl in

Q3’26 and

Q4’26,

respective

ly.

HSBC $80 $70($6 $76($ $67 March 10,  

($65 6 61 ($6 2026

previo previo previ 3

usly) usly) ously pre

) vio

usl

y)

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)