Like other forecasters before them, NOAA is predicting below-normal activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but there remains “uncertainty in how each season will unfold.”
The agency is predicting eight to 14 named storms. Three to six are forecast to become hurricanes and of those, one to three are predicted to become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or stronger.
While the prediction is for a below-normal season, NOAA said people should prepare. “It only tkaes one storm to make for a very bad season,” said Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service director.
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NOAA isn’t the only one predicting a “below-average” season. AccuWeather and Colorado State University also have predicted the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than the average.
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An average season — using data between 1991 and 2020 — has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
There were 13 named storms in 2025, below the above-average season predicted by forecasters ahead of the season.
In 2025, no hurricane made landfall in the continental United States for the first time since 2015, according to NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service.
There were a record 30 named storms in 2020.
NOAA predicting 8-14 named storms for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
NOAA forecasters predict:
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
“NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges,” the agency said.
What factors could influence the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
NOAA considered several factors in its prediction for a below-normal hurricane season, including:
El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average, NOA said.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said Graham.
“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
How does El Niño affect Florida’s hurricane season?
Predictions are that El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance over the next two to three months, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
El Niño usually suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing the wind shear which tears developing storms apart or prevents them in their infancy.
➤ El Niño odds rise again, which could mean fewer hurricanes for Florida
“Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin,” NOAA said.
For Florida, the return of El Niño through the peak months of the 2026 hurricane season is good news and could mean fewer tropical cyclones during some of the most prodigious storm weeks of the year.
Does El Niño mean Florida is safe from hurricanes this year?
No. Despite the presence of El Niño, Florida could still feel the impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane this year.
“The areas I’m most concerned about are from Tampa northward through the Big Bend of Florida toward the New Orleans area, as well as the Carolinas, including the Outer Banks down toward the North-South Carolina border,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
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Colorado State University forecasters predicted Florida faces a 74% chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles of the state in 2026.
That’s why forecasters constantly remind people they should prepare for hurricanes, no matter what the forecast is.
Don’t wait. Prepare now for hurricane, no matter what predictions say
“There is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said.
“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.
➤ Everything to know about NOAA tips from Hurricane Preparedness Week 2026
“NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns is not a landfall forecast.
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm.”
Compare NOAA hurricane predictions to AccuWeather, Colorado State University
Here are predictions already released for this year’s hurricane season.
AccuWeather predicting 11-16 named storms for 2026 hurricane season
Colorado State University predicting 13 named storms for 2026 hurricane season
Florida’s WeatherTiger predicting 10-15 named storms this hurricane season
Pacific hurricane season expected to be active
NOAA is predicting an above-normal season in the eastern and central Pacific:
Compare to average activity in the Pacific:
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to start of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Interactive map: See how many hurricanes, tropical storms have passed near your home
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What’s next?
We will provide daily tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: How bad will 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? NOAA issues its prediction
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
