We’re still about two weeks from the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season but as has been its custom in recent years, the National Hurricane Center started posting its daily tropical outlooks May 15.
The outlooks are forecasters’ daily reports of what’s happening in the Atlantic basin. The practice of doing them earlier than the start of the season began in 2021 as a response to potential storm activity starting in May.
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The tropical outlooks provide a quick peek at what’s happening in the tropics, including any disturbances out there showing potential for development and also any tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.
There are no disturbances being highlighted showing potential for development over the next two to seven days and often even the tropical waves forecasters track aren’t any reason for worry in Florida.
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“The first waves that come off Africa are usually too far south, and there’s often too much dry air and wind shear for them to develop,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email. “There’s no real concern with these early-season tropical waves.”
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to start of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
When is Pacific hurricane season? It’s now
The Pacific hurricane season starts about two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season.
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May 15 marked the beginning of the 2026 hurricane season in the eastern Pacific.
While El Niño could mean fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, those warmer-than-normal ocean temps could mean an unusually active hurricane season in the Pacific, forecasters said.
National Hurricane Center tracking no disturbances
There are no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. May 16.
There are two tropical waves:
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
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“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What are National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlooks?
The National Hurricane Center started issuing daily tropical outlooks May 15. The outlooks will be updated every six hours until rhe season ends Nov. 30.
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An outlook could be issued before or beyond those dates if something showing potential for development appears.
What are predictions for 2026 hurricane season?
Here are some of the predictions released so far for this year’s hurricane season. NOAA will release its forecast May 21.
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A major hurricane is a storm that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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Could Florida be hit by a hurricane in 2026? See which counties have highest chance
What are hurricane names for 2026 hurricane season?
Names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and how to pronounce them, are:
Florida weather radar for May 15, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Cheryl McCloud and John Gallas are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center tracking underway ahead of 2026 season
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud and John Gallas, Naples Daily News / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
