Nueces County’s shift toward Republican dominance has not been a linear transition, but it became clear in 2023.
From 2019 to 2022, Democrat Barbara Canales was the Nueces County judge, leading a majority-Democratic Commissioners Court. Running for a second term, Canales lost to Republican Connie Scott by 11 points; the Commissioners Court now has a Republican majority.
In November 2024, the county turned red.
Since 2013, the Texas House seat for District 34 had been held by Democratic Rep. Abel Herrero. Republican Denise Villalobos bested Democrat Solomon P. Ortiz Jr. by 11 points, flipping the seat — which spans the western half of Nueces County, including part of Corpus Christi.
In Texas Senate District 27, which overlaps part of Texas House District 34, Adam Hinojosa prevailed over Democratic incumbent Morgan LaMantia by about 1 point — two years after she narrowly defeated him in the same race.
But what caused the city and county to become more Republican after being predominantly Democratic?
Several leaders in the area said it’s a combination of several issues: the Hispanic vote, “Trumpism,” the economy and characteristics of candidates.
The power of the Hispanic vote
The U.S. Census Bureau reported there was a population of 317,317 in Corpus Christi and 353,125 in Nueces County in July 24. Of those two populations, there was a 62% Hispanic population in the city and 63.4% in the county.
As someone with a “mixed family,” Scott said she believes the Hispanic community puts family and faith first. She said many of Hispanic people’s values align more with the Republican Party.
“A lot of Hispanics are Catholic and want to protect life,” said Carmen Calderone, chairman of the Nueces County Republican Party. “They’re very heavy with family values and see that Republicans are aligned with those issues.”
Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi political science assistant professor Laine Shay said that over the past several years, Republicans have done more to reach Hispanic voters in South Texas compared to Democrats. Those efforts included more visits to Hispanic communities in South Texas — including visits from President Donald Trump — and recruiting Hispanic candidates to run for office, Shay said.
Rene Saenz, chairman of the Nueces County Democratic Party, said he believes the Hispanic realignment happened when the older Democratic population began to “dwindle.”
“Many passed away as they got older or they moved,” Saenz said. “We thought the younger Hispanic population would vote Democrat like their family before them. That wasn’t the case. Republicans really came out and formed a coalition to help elevate the status of Republicans in the Nueces County.”
Saenz said the two parties are only ever able to win depending on which gets the Hispanic vote.
“Anglos tend to stay with the Republican Party,” Saenz said. “There are some that vote Democratic, but the number is heavier on the other side. Now, more Hispanics are switching parties and becoming Republican.”
‘Trumpism’
Saenz said he started to notice a change in politics in 2010 when Barack Obama was president. He said he remembered Republicans “scaring the heck” out of Democrats with a red wave in the midterms.
That included the unseating of Democratic U.S. Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz by Republican Blake Farenthold. Farenthold was then succeeded by Republican Michael Cloud.
In the 2014 midterms, another red wave hit, which affected Nueces County.
Democrat Diana Barrera lost her position as Nueces County clerk, which she had held since 2004. Republican Kara Sands beat Barrera by about 1 point.
Saenz said during President Donald Trump’s first term, the midterms saw a blue wave. With that swell, Canales came into office as Nueces County judge. But it wasn’t until 2020 when Saenz said he noticed Democrats began to lose more prominently in elections.
“I attribute that to what I call ‘Trumpism,'” Saenz said. “Trump came in, and a lot of people, especially young Hispanics, began to worship him.”
During President Joe Biden’s administration, people were still dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 epidemic and inflation, Saenz said. He said because of that, Democrats were “wiped out” during midterms.
‘Our economy is our fortune’
Canales said the economy in Nueces County is built on energy. She said Republicans used that idea as a “scare tactic” to voters by claiming Democrats are working to take jobs away.
“It’s a lot of misinformation,” Canales said. “Our economy is our fortune. The Democratic Party is the party of the American worker, farmer and business owner. We care about the economy and how it is affecting our community, and that’s why a blue wave will hit the nation this November.”
Shay said how the economy is faring plays a large role during election season. He said voters are also more attracted to select specific candidates depending on their characteristics.
While party labels matter less in a formal sense in South Texas than they do nationally, Shay said they feel far more personal than in other parts of the country.
“Individual candidate characteristics play quite a bit of a role here,” Shay said. “People care about who is campaigning, has their name out and if they are a good fit. Generally, candidates who have prior experience tend to do better when they run for other offices because they have higher name recognition.”
Shay mentioned how Villalobos was able to flip the 34th district by having prior experience as a school board member with the Tuloso-Midway Independent School District.
He said that there is more middle ground in Corpus Christi compared to other parts of the country.
“There are more swing voters here,” Shay said. “Voters here are moderate to leaning conservative, but races are more candidate-centered. Voters are evaluating candidates based on their individual characteristics compared to their positions.”
Could Nueces County turn blue again?
The midterm election will be held Nov. 3.
During the Nueces County primaries in March 2026, Democratic voters showed up to polling sites more than Republicans during the 11-day cycle.
Nearly 15,000 Democratic voters showed up compared to more than 13,000 Republican voters.
In 2022, more than 10,000 Republican voters showed up versus more than 7,000 Democratic voters for the primaries. In 2018, there was a difference of 516 voters with Democrats besting Republicans.
Shay said he believes Democrats will be successful in the midterm election because the party in charge traditionally underperforms during midterms. Scott agreed, saying the pendulum swings both ways and that a heavy Democratic presence could return.
Calderone said while Republicans underperformed this year, he is happy with the turnout in the county.
“It was a bit of a wakeup call, though,” Calderone said. “We need to work even harder to make sure we turn out the votes in November. But at the end of the day, we’re all in this to build a better community for everybody.”
Saenz said the last time he saw a voter turnout like this was back in 2006 during the Iraq War.
“This was just the primaries, but it looks good for Democrats,” Saenz said. “I don’t see Republicans really united behind Trump right now because he took us into war, increased inflation and is continuing to set the nation up for failure.”
He said he hopes the same voters will show up on Election Day, but he is wary of voters who did not come out to vote during the primaries.
“I predict there will be a blue wave nationally, but not so much in Nueces County,” Saenz said. “I think Democrats will do good based on this election cycle, but we need to continue the battle here locally.”
John Oliva covers entertainment and community news in South Texas. Have a story idea? Contact him at john.oliva@caller.com.
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This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: How Nueces County went from blue to red; leaders talk shift
Reporting by John Oliva, Corpus Christi Caller Times / Corpus Christi Caller Times
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