From a proxy victory for President Donald Trump to close calls in congressional races, the 2026 primary election provided a glimpse at what voters are feeling ahead of the November general election.
State senators were seemingly picked off one-by-one. Challengers in races up and down the ballot came close to victory, even when they were mismatched on funding. And Democrats got more fodder in their contest against a potentially vulnerable Republican.
Here’s a breakdown of the election’s many twists and turns, and what Hoosiers can glean from them.
Both Democrats and Republicans are dissatisfied with incumbents
Incumbents typically have an ironclad advantage. The national average for incumbent wins down the ballot was 95% in 2024.
But on May 5, many incumbents saw the seeds of revolt. Though all of Indiana’s U.S. representatives won their races, most incumbents in contested primaries had vote shares hovering around 60%. Only Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan cracked three-quarters of the vote with around 80%.
And U.S. Rep. Jefferson Shreve, who had raised $2.3 million to his challenger’s $22,000, notched just 53% of the vote.
Part of the issue could be general dissatisfaction with Congress, which has weathered multiple government shutdowns and failed to pass some legislation popular with conservatives despite having a GOP majority.
“It’s difficult serving in a Congress that Gallup has at a 10% approval rating,” Shreve wrote in a post on X following his narrow victory. “I understand the frustration many voters feel, and I share it. But I’m committed to confronting our challenges head on and advancing practical solutions.”
But local races saw a some of this effect, too. Karla López Owens, a community advocate challenging Kate Sweeney Bell, was mere percentage points away from an upset in the Marion County clerk’s race.
Trump (or money) still runs politics in Indiana
The question of the year was answered in full force on Election Day: Trump’s coveted endorsement very much matters, even in local races.
Six of the eight Trump-endorsed candidates in state Senate races where incumbents voted down redistricting won — and some by a lot. Another race is too close to call, so it’s possible that only one candidate who voted for redistricting and ran for re-election will end up surviving the frenzy.
One important caveat to the thesis about Trump’s power, however, is how much money was involved: $13 million was poured into these races, an unprecedented amount that was mostly dedicated to opposing incumbent senators. Plus, another anti-redistricting senator, Sen. Rick Niemeyer of Lowell, lost even though his opponent wasn’t endorsed by Trump.
While hard to isolate the two variables, the primary election results were still a clear victory for Trump.
Rep. Victoria Spartz may be in trouble
Another incumbent that had a rocky election night was U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz.
Her challenger, Scott King, did not raise enough money to have to file with the Federal Election Commission and did not have a campaign website, instead operating off of his Facebook account. He still nabbed 40% of the vote.
It could signal general anti-Spartz sentiment. Two voters who cast their ballots for King on May 5 told IndyStar they were upset with Spartz, either because they thought she didn’t support the Second Amendment enough or because she broke her term limits promise.
Spartz has been a less conventional GOP representative, declining House Republican committee assignments and sometimes flipping on votes. Democrats have pointed to those qualities as evidence they may have an opportunity to flip the somewhat purple district in November.
Democrats also just elected a candidate who outraised Spartz in the first quarter of 2026, which they’ve taken as another positive sign for their prospects.
Progressives make a splash, but fail to notch a win
The perennial progressive vs establishment debate in the Democratic Party was another feature of the primaries, though progressives failed to make any real gains.
But while these political outsiders didn’t win their contests, they did prove they have a sizeable chunk of the party: a potential problem for Democrats in November if frustration on the left continues.
In the 5th Congressional District, where Sen. J.D. Ford decisively won the nomination, progressive Jackson Franklin took second place. And in the 7th Congressional District, the runner up was Destiny Wells instead of George Hornedo, even though Hornedo raised more money and had been campaigning longer. Wells has run for office before, so she has name recognition, but she had also made an effort to frame herself as a progressive by pledging support for universal health care and raising the federal minimum wage.
IndyStar reporter Alysa Guffey contributed to this story.
Contact breaking politics reporter Marissa Meador at mmeador@indystar.com or find her on X at @marissa_meador.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 4 takeaways from an unusual Indiana primary election
Reporting by Marissa Meador, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
