On Tuesday evening, the Los Angeles Lakers will open their Western Conference semifinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Once again, they will be big underdogs, just as they were in the first round of the playoffs against the Houston Rockets, and they will have to go to war without Luka Doncic, who is still nursing a hamstring strain.
The experts at the NBA Wires sites on the USA Today network gave their predictions for how this series will go. Not a single one of them picked the Lakers, which is an indication of how much work the Purple and Gold will have to get done over the next two weeks or so.
Clemente Almanza, Thunder Wire: For the Thunder, they had to lick their chops once this became official. They’ve had the Lakers’ number this season. They were a plus-117 points across their four regular-season wins. I know you can’t make things one-for-one in the two environments, but that type of one-sided dominance is too much to ignore. Especially if Doncic misses several games in this playoff matchup.
The Thunder are just quicker and younger than the Lakers. Both rosters are completely different. OKC has mostly homegrown talent in their early 20s. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a bunch of 30-plus-year-olds who’ve been around the league for a minute. That’s a great combo for OKC. Bad combo for Los Angeles.
It’s difficult to forecast this Round 2 series. Doncic’s and Williams’ injury clouds any real predictions. But I feel like the Thunder are deservedly the heavy favorite. Gilgeous-Alexander is on a mission. He’s on his way to back-to-back MVP awards. OKC should torch Los Angeles’ defense and then force them to cough up the ball a ton. It won’t be as one-sided as their Round 1 matchup, but this should be a quick series.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Robert Marvi, LeBron Wire: If both teams were at full strength, this would be a very interesting and perhaps a very competitive series. But unfortunately, that isn’t the case. Jalen Williams and Luka Doncic both have hamstring strains, and it is unknown when either will return.
Austin Reaves’ return from an oblique strain has given the Lakers a shot in the arm. But the Thunder have one of the best defenses anyone has seen in recent memory in the NBA. They were second in opponents’ turnover percentage and first in points off turnovers during the regular season, and they’re simply deeper and more athletically gifted than Los Angeles.
The Thunder are also underrated offensively. They were seventh in offensive rating and fifth in points during the regular season, and while they aren’t a true fast-break team, they have no trouble winning a 130-point game.
LeBron James has a history of leading his teams to series wins as an underdog, just as he did in the prior series versus the Houston Rockets, so perhaps L.A. will be competitive at times in this series. But I fully expect Oklahoma City to take this series.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Mack Baltes, Warriors Wire: In four regular season matchups this year, the Lakers were outscored by an abysmal 29.3 points per game, the worst margin of any matchup in NBA playoff history. With Luka Doncic and Jalen Williams still sidelined, that trend could easily continue.
Of championship-caliber teams in recent years, no one finishes their opponents as quickly as the Thunder have. With Oklahoma City’s sweep of the Suns, they became the third franchise in NBA history to start three consecutive postseason runs with a series sweep.
Additionally, Los Angeles still suffers from one of the most telling stats in the league, bench points. The Lakers ranked 29th during the regular season in this category, highlighting their dependence on Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James. In round one of the playoffs, this trend continued with the Lakers ranking 11th of 16 teams. As for Oklahoma City, they averaged 12.5 more points off the bench than the Lakers in the regular season and 13.3 more in round one of the postseason.
That said, the Western Conference is tremendously talented. Although Los Angeles lacks the depth and perimeter defense (apart from the tremendous effort of Marcus Smart) needed to keep up with the Thunder, a sweep seems harsh, especially when considering that Luka Doncic could return. For all of these reasons, I expect the Thunder to dominate this series with many convincing victories and just one loss.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Ky Carlin, Sixers Wire: The Lakers have LeBron James, who continues to deny Father Time a win on the floor, and a cast of shooters who did their job in Round 1 against the Houston Rockets. Combine the play of James and the shooters with Austin Reaves now on the floor and working on getting his rhythm back, and one has to believe LA will challenge the Thunder in some capacity. With that being said, the Thunder are the better team. It just is what it is. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and their strong supporting cast, this should be another rather easy Thunder win. They dominated the Lakers in the regular season, and with no Luka Doncic, this should be a series for OKC.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Daniel Donabedian, Celtics Wire: Repeating as an NBA champion has never been more difficult, but the Thunder have the pieces to do it. The Lakers won’t be an easy out though, as 41-year-old LeBron James knows this could be one of his last times in the playoffs — and a desperate LeBron is dangerous, even at his age. There are obviously major injury question marks with Jalen Williams for the Thunder and Luka Doncic for the Lakers, but, as is, I’m going with the reigning champs in the second round. They’re not invincible and the Lakers understand what’s at stake, however, the Thunder are the most connected team in the league and have been since opening night. The Thunder also roster that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander guy, who seems destined for back-to-back MVPs and is the best player in the NBA right now.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
This article originally appeared on LeBron Wire: NBA Wires experts roundtable: Who will win Lakers vs. Thunder series?
Reporting by Robert Marvi, LeBron Wire / LeBron Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
