EAST LANSING – What comes next matters most for Tom Izzo.
How will Michigan State basketball recover from a lopsided loss? History says Izzo typically gets the Spartans to brush off a blowout and respond with better play.
The 15th-ranked Spartans got blitzed and blasted, 92-71, on Friday, Feb. 13, at what is now No. 25-ranked Wisconsin. MSU has lost only 30 games by 20-or-more points in Izzo’s 1,064 career games over 31 seasons.
“A game can get out of hand for a lot of different reasons – who you’re playing, where you’re playing, when you’re playing them,” said Izzo, who is 757-307 all-time and 370-177 against Big Ten opponents. “What I look at more is how do we practice going into it? How have we practiced since the game? When some of you say people are jumping off the bandwagon, they have no idea what the daily structure of everything is.
“They gotta trust me. … I am not concerned at all about where our team is as far as mentally. At all.”
With six regular-season games left, MSU hosts UCLA at 8:30 p.m. Tuesday (Peacock) in the first of a two-game homestand this week. And in desperate need of cleaning up and taking care of things on their home court to continue the Spartans’ quest for a triple-bye in the first 18-team Big Ten Tournament that begins March 10 in Chicago at United Center.
Michigan State basketball’s Big Ten outlook
While not yet mathematically eliminated, the Spartans’ odds to repeat as Big Ten champs according to PlayoffStatus.com are down to less than 1% after their swoon over the past three weeks as league-leading and new unanimous No. 1 Michigan continues to pull away in the standings. MSU would essentially need to win all six of its remaining games and have the Wolverines, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska fall apart.
As for the Big Ten Tournament seeding picture, scenarios exist where MSU could be forced to play March 11 on the second day at United Center if its season completely unravels over the final three weeks of the regular season. But the opportunity remains strong for the Spartans to avoid playing until Friday and make it a three-games-in-three-days path to a tourney title.
“You’re in an onslaught, and so are some of these other top teams. But somebody’s gonna lose,” Izzo said. “So you know what? There’s gonna be four other fanbases that are gonna be upset, because the top eight teams are playing each other all the time now. And there can’t be ties, it’s not hockey.”
MSU after a blowout loss under Tom Izzo
Of Izzo’s lopsided losses, 22 have come in conference play. After losing by 20-or-more, MSU is 17-10 in the next game that season and 13-8 versus Big Ten teams. Twice, the Spartans’ season ended with 20-point losses in the NCAA Tournament (2017 against Kansas in the second round and 2015 against Duke in the Final Four).
Since winning his first Big Ten title in 1998, Izzo is 13-5 overall and 10-4 against league foes after a loss of 20 or more points. The loss to the Badgers was the Spartans’ eighth by 20-plus points against a Big Ten opponent since 2011; three came during the pandemic-disrupted 2020-21 season, and two more happened the following season.
Why the dip?
Looking at the past four games – losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and a win over Illinois – a few stats stand out.
The Spartans are shooting just 28.6% from 3-point range in those games (28-for-98) while their opponents are making a sizzling 38.1% and have both taken and made 15 more from deep (43-for-113). In the first 21 games, MSU shot 35.9% from behind the arc and held its opposition to 30.1%.
Wisconsin made 15 of 35 from 3-point range, and Izzo said the Badgers’ penetration and kickouts “put us on skates” defensively Friday.
“We had a long week’s prep going into this game into the game, going over ball screens and everything,” freshman guard Jordan Scott said Friday night. “That’s what they love, that’s what they do almost every time down the court. We gotta do better in the games after we prepared like that in practice.”
While Izzo’s team hit 84.3% of its free throws during the past four games, opponents have gotten to the line 21 more times in this stretch (82-for-104). Over its first 21 games, MSU sent its competition to the line 21.5 times a game (15.9 makes); in the past four games, opponents free-throw attempts have increased to 26 a contest (20.5 makes).
On the glass during the swoon, the Spartans’ rebounding margin also has dipped to plus-8.4 after outrebounding their first 10 Big Ten opponents by 14 a game – though a lot of that has to do with the uptick in competition. Both the Badgers and Wolverines evened the rebounding totals after MSU outrebounded every other team it faced this season other than Duke (44-43).
Wisconsin (32.4%), Illinois (29.8%) and U-M (29.6%) also have three of the four highest opponent offensive rebounding percentages in the country. The Badgers’ 19 second-chance points are the most MSU has allowed this season, while the Wolverines (14) and Illini (12) have the second- and third-highest totals.
Izzo said defense and rebounding must be “what it has to be. Because that’s the DNA of the program, and that’s what we hang our hat on.”
Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper must adjust to defenses
Individually, the downturn of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper in the paint also has played a factor – partly due to opposing defenses paying them more attention and partly because they are packing the paint while daring Jeremy Fears Jr. and Coen Carr to shoot from outside.
The 6-foot-9 Kohler’s struggles began during MSU’s trip to the Pacific Northwest in mid-January. In his past eight games, including the Washington and Oregon wins, he averages 8.6 points and 7.6 rebounds with 23.1% shooting on 3s, along with going just 6-for-7 on free throws.
In MSU’s first 17 games, Kohler was making 51.6% from deep and averaging 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds, going 31-for-36 on free throws. Opposing defenses have adjusted to get a hand in his face as he catches the ball on the perimeter, denying him open looks he saw early on pick-and-pop plays. They’re also doubling him when he catches the ball on the low block to force him to get rid of it.
Cooper, meanwhile, has been getting more physical treatment from defenders inside the paint. His pick-and-roll lobs from Fears have become harder to come by, and he has struggled as a back-to-the-basket post-up scorer. The 6-11 center is averaging just 5.3 points and 5.8 rebounds the past four games and has gotten to the free-throw line four times. In the eight games in 2026 prior to that, Cooper was averaging 11.4 points and 8.5 rebounds a game.
“I think they might be wearing down a little bit,” Izzo said of his two senior captains.
Scouting UCLA basketball
The Bruins (17-8, 9-5) are coming off an 86-56 road loss Saturday in which No. 1 Michigan overwhelmed them after a strong start. After trailing by just two at halftime, UCLA got outscored 46-18 in the second half.
Still, coach Mick Cronin’s team has won seven of 10, including a 69-67 upset of Purdue at Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 20.
Point guard Donovan Dent averages 13.5 points and seven assists, and UCLA ranks 26th in Division I with a 1.63 turnover-to-assist ratio. MSU faced Dent, a 6-2, 185-pound senior transfer, last season with New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament, and held him to 14 points on 7-for-18 shooting with six assists and four turnovers in MSU’s 71-63 win in Cleveland.
The Bruins are 26th in 3-point defense (30%) and 18th on offense in 3-point shooting percentage (38.1%), with Tyler Bilodeau and Trent Perry combining for half of their 102 3-pointers made.
Bilodeau, a 6-9 forward, leads the Bruins at 17 points a game and shots 41.2% from 3, adding a team-leading 6.1 rebounds. Perry, a 6-4 sophomore guard, averages 14.6 points and 3.5 boards. Skyy Clark, a 6-3 guard who returned Saturday after missing more than a month, averages 12.8 points, and 6-8 swingman Eric Dailey Jr. posts 11.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.
UCLA, which beat the Spartans last year 63-61 in Los Angeles and holds an 8-4 all-time series lead, will be making its first trip to East Lansing as a Big Ten member and just its third visit ever. The Bruins’ only game at Breslin was a 76-64 MSU win on Dec. 21, 2004; the Spartans lost to them in 1952 at Jenison Fieldhouse.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: ‘Trust me’ Tom Izzo asks as Michigan State basketball meets UCLA
Reporting by Chris Solari, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
