Indiana football plays Alabama in the Rose Bowl tonight, Jan. 1, 2026.
Not only is IU competing in the College Football Playoff a wild enough notion; it is favored by a touchdown over one the sport’s premier programs, according to BetMGM.
The Hoosiers (13-0) are ranked No. 1 (again, wild) after beating previously top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. The Crimson Tide (11-3) beat Oklahoma in a first-round game.
IU is led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, while Ty Simpson guides Alabama.
Rose Bowl predictions: Will Indiana football team Alabama in the Rose Bowl today, Jan. 1, 2026?
Zach Osterman, IndyStar: It depends on the weather
“I will stand, as the kids say, on business. If Thursday isn’t played in a downpour, I think Alabama will be comfortable living without a lot of what Indiana takes away defensively, and I think the Crimson Tide found something in Norman in the first-round comeback. Provided decent weather, Alabama 27, Indiana 24. If it is pouring down rain, Indiana 28, Alabama 10, because at that point, the game will be defined by who can run the football, and only one of these teams can. So I’m standing mostly on business.”
Michael Niziolek, Herald-Times: Indiana 31, Alabama 17
“Alabama has plenty of talent and the comeback win over Oklahoma seemed to give it some momentum, but it has plenty of flaws. The Tide don’t have a balanced offense (they have the No. 120-ranked run offense in the FBS), struggle to protect quarterback Ty Simpson at times and don’t consistently rush the passer, either.
“Those three things are of particular concern in the Rose Bowl when going up against Indiana that can score in a hurry if Fernando Mendoza has time in the pocket and has a defense that’s dominated one-dimensional opponents.
“Indiana will be coming off a lengthy layoff and the weather is a wild card, but none of that kind of ‘clutter’ as Curt Cignetti likes to say has tripped them up before. The Hoosiers have beaten better teams (Ohio State) that are just as athletic (Oregon) in much tougher environments. This would have been a more challenging moment for last year’s team, but this battle-tested group knows its strengths and will come out on top on New Year’s Day.”
Colin Gay, TuscaloosaNews.com: Alabama 24-21
“Indiana is, by far, the best team Alabama has faced all season with a top-five scoring offense and a top-two scoring defense nationally. The Crimson Tide’s defense has lived up to expectation against top offenses, shutting down Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the regular season, both of which are top-10 scoring offenses nationally. Paired with a surging offense, one that was methodical and consistent against an Oklahoma defense that is one of the best in college football, Alabama could be peaking at the right time, something that could mark trouble for the Hoosiers.”
James Parks, Sports Illustrated: Indiana 26-20
“Alabama has the bodies to apply some decent pressure on Mendoza in the pocket and disrupt Indiana’s famed offensive rhythm, and boasts skill players who can exploit some coverage gaps in the Hoosiers’ secondary.
“But the Crimson Tide can’t run the ball right now. They average 2.5 yards per touch against AP ranked teams and averaged all of 12.5 rushing yards per game in the month of December. Advantage, Hoosiers.”
Adam Rittenberg, ESPN: Indiana 24-16
“Indiana had barely capped off the most magical night in recent program history before coach Curt Cignetti turned his attention toward preparing (and humbling) his team before the CFP. The Hoosiers are No. 1 for the first time and riding high from their first outright Big Ten title since 1945. But going undefeated didn’t matter for Oregon in last season’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana must lock in for an opponent that is used to the biggest of stages. Yes, it’s Alabama, but the Hoosiers have the better quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, a much better running game with multiple options and a defense that can match up with the Tide, especially after the Ohio State win. Alabama will need some type of offensive balance to win this one, and I don’t see it happening against coordinator Bryant Haines’ ferocious defense. Indiana gets two touchdown passes from Mendoza and advances.”
R.J. Young, Fox Sports: Indiana wins
“Indiana doesn’t make a habit of giving the ball away like Oklahoma did in the first round of the CFP. Indiana ranks No. 1 in turnover margin (plus-17) and features the Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. It’s a team that has already shown it can beat what was the best team in the sport in Ohio State and will get one of its two best wide receivers back from injury in time for kickoff in Omar Cooper Jr.”
Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports: Over 48.5 total points
“I’m not expecting a shootout, but I do believe both offenses are capable of moving the ball against these opposing defenses. Oklahoma probably should’ve scored more than it did against Alabama in the first round, and while Indiana’s defense has been exceptional, it has been prone to allowing explosive passes this season, which is an area Alabama thrives. Won’t be a shootout, but it won’t be a rock fight, either.”
Who is favored to win the Rose Bowl today, Jan. 1, 2026? Who is favored to win Indiana vs. Alabama today, Jan. 1, 2026?
Rose Bowl weather forecast today, Jan. 1, 2026; will it rain at the Rose Bowl today, Jan. 1, 2026?
An 85% chance of rain, light wind and temperatures in the upper 50s are forecast for Pasadena, California, today, Jan. 1, 2026.
When and where is the Rose Bowl game today, Jan. 1, 2026? Start time for Indiana football vs. Alabama in the Rose Bowl today, Jan. 1, 2026?
The Rose Bowl game between Indiana and Alabama is at 4 p.m. ET Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
What channel is the Rose Bowl game today, Jan. 1, 2026? Where to watch Alabama football vs. Indiana today, Jan. 1, 2026?
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football vs Alabama predictions, picks in Rose Bowl tonight, Jan. 1: Will the Hoosiers win?
Reporting by Scott Horner, Zach Osterman and Michael Niziolek, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
