The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) can run the win streak to three games, sweep last year’s division champ in the NFC North and get a valuable win in the playoff race if Matt LaFleur’s team can go into Ford Field and beat the Detroit Lions (7-4) on Thanksgiving Day.
Dan Campbell’s team remains talented and formidable on both sides of the ball, but the Lions also needed a comeback overtime win at home over the New York Giants on Sunday to prevent a 1-3 stretch coming of the bye.
Can Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur win a third straight Thanksgiving Day game and become the favorite to win the NFC North?
Here are the five keys to the Packers beating the Lions on Thanksgiving in Week 13:
1. Tackle again
The Packers tackled extremely well on defense in the first meeting, providing a big reason why Jahmyr Gibbs produced only 19 rushing yards on nine attempts and 31 receiving yards on 10 catches. A defense must tackle consistently against Gibbs, who is often just one miss away from an explosive play, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is fourth in yards after catch among receivers this season. And the guess here is the Packers will want Jared Goff getting to the checkdowns underneath, much like in Week 1, but rallying to the ball and limiting YAC is the key to the plan. Consistently making tackles is arguably the biggest factor to limiting Gibbs and eliminating explosive plays against the Lions.
2. Hit a couple of explosive passing plays
Speaking of explosive plays, this might be the week to attack down the field in the passing game. The Lions prefer to play man coverage and will aggressively send blitzers on passing downs to supplement the rush. If things are blocked up, there will be chances to throw down the field and into space. Also, the Lions like to play heavy along the defensive front and aren’t afraid to load up to defend the run, so throwing out of heavy personnel or in run situations could be one way to generate some explosive play opportunities. Christian Watson, the team’s best man beater, is the best chance for a big play or two.
3. Start fast, and survive late
In the Thanksgiving Day win in Detroit in 2023, the Packers scored on the opening drive and raced out to a 20-6 lead in the first quarter. In Week 1, the Packers scored on the opening drive and led 10-0 after one quarter and 17-3 at the half. Starting fast is pivotal, not only for establishing confidence on the road in a hostile environment but also for creating the right game flow for the Packers. Matt LaFleur’s team is at its absolute best when it can jump on a team early and put them away late with the pass rush. The finish will be fascinating to watch on Thanksgiving Day — the Packers defense played all of 44 snaps on Sunday against the Vikings, while the Lions defense played almost 80 snaps and was on the field for over 37 minutes in an overtime game against the Giants. Will the Lions wear down late? Getting an early lead could allow the Packers to ride the run game in the second half and test the Lions on a short week.
4. Pressure Goff
Few quarterbacks have a bigger kept clean/under pressure split than Jared Goff, who has completed 79 percent of passes, averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and thrown 23 touchdown passes from clean pockets and 45.5 percent of passes, averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and thrown 0 touchdown passes while under pressure this season. The Packers defensive front must control the game, not only in terms of limiting alleys for Jahmyr Gibbs in the run game but also pressuring Goff in passing situations. The Lions battered offensive line provides a path to pressure — center Graham Glasgow is out, guard Christian Mahogany is on injured reserve and the three other starters (Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker and Tate Ratledge) are questionable to play with injuries. This is no longer an elite pass-blocking offensive line. Win the battle up front, keep Goff under pressure and the Packers likely win the game.
5. Block Hutchinson, and avoid the game-turning giveaway
Aidan Hutchinson is one of the game’s most disruptive pass-rushers, but he lacks a true pass-rushing sidekick, and others along the Lions defensive front have struggled to consistently generate pressure. As was the plan in Week 1, expect the Packers to pay a lot of attention to No. 97 in hopes of limiting his impact on the game. Force someone else to beat you up front, much like teams with Micah Parsons and the Packers. Blocking Hutchinson is the key to avoiding a big turnover, especially with All-Pro Kerby Joseph not expected to play. Entering Week 13, Hutchinson is tied for first in pressures creating turnovers (4). Block 97, keep Jordan Love clean, and avoid the big mistake. Easier said than done, but so many of these Packers-Lions tilts have turned on a single takeaway (see: Evan Williams interception in the red zone in Week 1, Jordan Love pick-six at Lambeau Field last year, Christian Watson’s fumble at Ford Field last year).
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 5 keys to Packers beating Lions on Thanksgiving in Week 13
Reporting by Zach Kruse, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
