The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) are headed to Detroit to play the rival Lions on Thanksgiving Day for the second time in three years. Two years ago, a young, rebuilt Packers team marched into Ford Field as a 4-6 underdog and shocked the Lions, sparking a late-season run to the playoffs. This year, a still young but far more experienced and battle-tested Packers team is squarely in the postseason mix and needing a win to become the clear favorite to win the NFC North.
Can the Packers sweep the Lions and begin a difficult six-game stretch to end the year with a statement win over last year’s division champs?
Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ showdown with the Lions in Week 13:
1. Parsons on Thanksgiving
This won’t be Micah Parsons’ first rodeo on Thanksgiving Day. After four seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, Parsons knows all about playing on the holiday on short rest. And he’s had a dominant start to his career on Thanksgiving, producing at least one sack and five pressures in all four games. His four-game totals: 6.0 sacks, 14 quarterback hits and 31 pressures. Not bad. On Wednesday, Parsons said he’s already feeling physically ready to play on short rest Thursday. He’ll get matchups against veterans Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. “I’m excited about it,” Parsons said Wednesday. The Packers need to consistently win up front on defense to contain an explosive offense in Detroit.
2. Run game test
The Packers have leaned heavily on the run in recent weeks, likely in response to the two deep shell coverages and the loss of Tucker Kraft. The results were mostly positive in wins over the Giants and Vikings, but the Lions — one of the best run defenses statistically this season — will challenge the Packers’ new identity and possibly force them to attack in different ways. The Lions aren’t afraid to play heavy along the defensive line and commit extra resources to the box to stop the run. Can the Packers find ways to be efficient in the run game using more tight ends and a sixth offensive lineman in heavy personnel? Or will the Lions load up against the run and force the Packers to throw the ball downfield with an injured quarterback? The chess game will be fascinating to watch.
3. Watson’s opportunity
Christian Watson has been terrific since returning, averaging over 16 yards per catch and almost 12 yards per target in his first five games back. He’s also become a go-to target on third down for Jordan Love. Expect Watson to be an important player for the Packers in the passing game on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions prefer man coverage, and Watson is the offense’s best man coverage beater, with the speed to threaten deep and the size to win contested catches. Also, the possible return of Jayden Reed from injured reserve and rookie Matthew Golden from a wrist injury could provide other explosive play options. If the Lions want to play man coverage, the Packers will have possible answers — starting with Watson.
4. Attacking the interior
The Lions are struggling to protect from the interior of the offensive line in a post-Frank Ragnow world. Also, starting center Graham Glasgow has a knee injury and might not play Thursday. Can the Packers attack the A gaps? Devonte Wyatt produced two clean-up sacks last week, Isaiah McDuffie got a sack on an A-gap blitz, Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker can be excellent A-gap blitzers and Micah Parsons is consistently getting opportunities to line up over the center and pick his spot as a pass-rusher. This battle could determine if the Packers can handle the Lions pass game. Quick pressure from the inside, whether from the four-man rush or blitzes, must rattle Jared Goff early and often.
5. Stopping Sonic
Jeff Hafley must do his best Dr. Robotnik impersonation and keep Jahmyr Gibbs — or “Sonic” — contained. It’s much easier said than done. Gibbs is one of the NFL’s most dynamic weapons, and he’s coming off a career-best 219 rushing yards and 264 total yards in Detroit’s overtime win over the Giants. Hafley said the Packers must be assignment sound on every single snap or Gibbs can create an explosive play. No freelancing, no dipping under blocks, no trying to do much to make a play. “Do your job” football is the only way to keep Gibbs from taking over. Way back in Week 1, the Packers were able to keep Gibbs to just 19 rushing yards on nine attempts. Repeating the feat will be almost impossible, but making sure Gibbs doesn’t take over with explosive plays is the goal. Keep this stat in mind: the Lions are 7-0 when Gibbs scores this season, and 0-4 when he doesn’t.
Prediction: Lions 24, Packers 23 (8-2-1)
Let me preface this by saying that I can easily see a scenario where the Packers defensive front controls the game against an injured and inconsistent Lions offensive line and the Packers eventually wear down a Lions defense that played almost 80 plays and was on the field for over 37 minutes of game time four days ago. Now that I provided a scenario where the Packers win AND picked the Lions to win, I can’t be wrong, right? All jokes aside, this really does look like an even matchup that could go either way based on how the two persevere through injuries and handle the line of scrimmage. I lean slightly towards the Lions because they are at home on a short week and have a healthy quarterback and running back, but the Packers will have every opportunity to win this game if they can find ways to stay on track via the run, hit a couple of explosive plays down the field, keep Jahmyr Gibbs contained and generate a turnover or two. This is a huge spot for the Packers to prove they can win a big game against a contender in a post-Tucker Kraft world.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Lions: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 13
Reporting by Zach Kruse, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
