Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to undergo “rapid intensification” and grow into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
If Melissa stays more over the warm Caribbean waters, it could grow even stronger, the National Hurricane Center said.
The latest advisory predicts Melissa will become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.
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“The tropical cyclone is expected to grow in size, and likely be a large and dangerous hurricane towards the end of the forecast period,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“Tropical Storm Melissa is unfortunately looking to be one of the most impactful storms of the Atlantic hurricane season,” said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post on Oct. 22.
At 2 p.m. Oct. 23, Melissa continued to drift along in the central Caribbean but is expected to begin intensifying soon, the Hurricane Center said. Heavy rain and life-threatening flooding are expected for Hispaniola and Jamaica through the weekend.
Florida residents should keep a wary eye on the storm. Forecasts are proving to be challenging, and models spread widely on where Melissa could go and how strong it could get.
A major hurricane is one that’s at least a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph. Current forecasts are for Melissa to become a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds early next week.
Could Melissa impact Florida?
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
As for areas farther to the north along the U.S. East Coast, there is some risk of impacts, even if the center remains at sea, AccuWeather said.
Here’s what you should know.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Melissa: What you need to know
At 2 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 75.3 West.
Melissa is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph. A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend.
On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend.
Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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See map of hurricane/tropical storm watches, warnings issued for Florida
As of 2 p.m., Oct. 23, no watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.
What tropical storm, hurricane warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Melissa?
A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa and where is it going?
Tropical Storm Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving north-northwest at 2 mph.
A slow northward motion is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn over the weekend.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
Not at this time but Florida residents should stay informed.
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” said DaSilva via email Oct. 21.
“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so.”
“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Melissa
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going and how strong could it get?
What impact could Tropical Storm Melissa have and what areas could be affected?
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
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This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa expected to strengthen into Category 4 hurricane. What to know in Florida
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
