By Jason Berndt
The Detroit Tigers will have an interesting decision to make before the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline on August 1st. Starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a five year, $77 million contract prior to the 2022 season, can opt out following this current season in 2023 and has a limited ten-team no trade protection.
With the new expanded playoff format, it has more teams feeling they have a chance to sneak into the postseason and the list of definite sellers shrinks considerably. With that being said, starting pitchers figure to be the most coveted commodity on the trade market and nobody has positioned themselves for a blockbuster move better than Eduardo Rodriguez. In 13 starts this season, he has posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.004 WHIP, and a 9.5 strikeout rate per nine innings. Those numbers are eye-opening to any team looking to add a frontline starter. Detroit would have to trade Rodriguez now, or risk losing him for nothing at the end of the year. That would likely happen because Rodriguez would command more than his current salary on the free agent market and could sign with an immediate contender like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets.
The Tigers find themselves ten games under .500, and six games back of the first place Minnesota Twins as of this writing on July 17. However, they are also 3 ½ games behind the Cleveland Guardians for second place, and only 2 ½ games up on the fourth place Chicago White Sox. Numerically they are alive in a playoff race, but realistically are they a true threat to make a major move in the next two weeks? They came out of the all-star break winning two out of three against the Seattle Mariners, and now begin a three-game set on the road against the Kansas City Royals followed by games to close out July against the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, and Miami Marlins. That stretch of games might give general manager Scott Harris enough time to decide which direction the team is headed this season. So, what are the benefits and the disadvantages of making a deal?
This could give the Tigers an outstanding chance to acquire a couple of young, top-tier prospects to include to their growing list heading into next season. It would also shed about $15.5 million off of their payroll, and with Miguel Cabrera’s $30 million coming off the books, they would be sitting in the bottom five in team payroll heading into the offseason. There is a short list of high quality free agent pitchers (behind Shohei Ohtani) that the Tigers could add to improve for 2024. If the Tigers move Rodriguez, they will likely rely on their young core or mid-tier veterans to carry them forward. Of course, this will give them more trade chips next season if they wish to acquire players during the season or at next year’s deadline. The disadvantage of trading one of your best starting pitchers now is that you will be signaling the likely end of this year, and giving up on a player who could be a big part of the future. With the uncertainty of starters Casey Mize, Spencer Turnbull, and Matthew Boyd, this would leave the Tigers vulnerable and add pressure to young starters Tarek Skubal and Matt Manning. A rotation of Rodriguez, Lorenzen, Skubal, Manning, and perhaps Mize would keep the Tigers in contention each of the next several seasons.
The Tigers may not have a choice. They would lose him for nothing as I mentioned if he were to opt out, so it would make more sense for all involved to move him now when his trade value is at its highest. It’s time to see if Scott Harris can make magic happen on or before August 1.
