Rivalry week has arrived, and The Game is finally here. Ohio State enters at 11–0, set to face 9–2 Michigan on Saturday in Ann Arbor. Michigan leads the all-time series 62–51–6 and has taken the last four meetings. No one on this year’s Ohio State roster has ever beaten Michigan, and no one on Michigan’s 2025 roster has ever lost to the Buckeyes. Still, something about this matchup feels different. The momentum has shifted, and I believe Ryan Day is poised to end Ohio State’s losing streak in enemy territory.
Here are five reasons why the Buckeyes will finally break through against Michigan and close the regular season with a perfect 12–0 record.
Ohio State vs. Michigan rivalry history
This is one of the longest and most storied rivalries in college football, stretching back to 1897. The teams have met every year since 1918, with only one interruption: the canceled 2020 matchup, the result of a COVID-19 outbreak within Michigan’s program. Over more than a century of clashes, a No. 1-ranked team has lost only once, and that came in 1969 when No. 12 Michigan stunned No. 1 Ohio State and snapped the Buckeyes’ 22-game winning streak.
With Ohio State sitting at No. 1 once again, history leans in their favor. Their recent four-game losing streak to Michigan came each time with the Buckeyes entering the matchup ranked No. 2, and now that they finally come in at No. 1, I believe that matters. It feels like the right setup for Ohio State to break the streak and put a win back on the board.
The cavalry is coming for Ohio State
Heading into the week, fans, analysts, and even the team weren’t sure whether Ohio State’s top wide receivers would suit up against Michigan. Junior Carnell Tate hasn’t played since the Penn State game on November 1, and sophomore Jeremiah Smith has been out since the second quarter of the UCLA matchup on November 15. The offense has looked noticeably different without its two primary pass catchers. The Buckeyes have continued to win convincingly, but getting both Tate and Smith back for this game would be a massive boost. And all signs suggest that’s exactly what will happen.
Ryan Day addressed their status Monday night, saying, “They are trending to play. They’re going to continue to get some rest tonight, had a good day of rehab,” Day said. We’ll wake up in the morning and see how they’re doing, but nobody wants to play more than those two guys.” Jeremiah Smith also appeared on the “Downs 2 Business” podcast, hosted by OSU safety Caleb Downs and his brother Josh Downs of the Colts, and offered his own update: “I’m feeling good. Dealing with a little situation injury-wise, but I should be good to go Saturday.”
That’s enormous for this offense. Their return gives quarterback Julian Sayin a much more complete set of weapons, and with Tate and Smith back in the mix, everything looks sharper and more dangerous heading into the matchup with Michigan.
The Ohio State defense is lockdown
Last year, the Buckeyes captured a national title with the top-ranked total defense in the country. They lost their defensive coordinator to Penn State and saw a significant amount of talent depart for the NFL, yet somehow, in 2025, this defense is even better. Through this point in the season, Ohio State ranks first in total defense, allowing just 206.6 yards per game, surrendering only nine total offensive touchdowns, and holding opponents to an average of 3.76 yards per play. Those numbers are phenomenal, and if it maintains this pace, the defense could be counted among the best college football defenses of the past 30 years. We’re talking peak Nick Saban Alabama, or the elite 2021 Georgia defenses, the kind of dominance seen before NIL changed the game.
Michigan’s freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood hasn’t exactly lit it up through the air this season, but the Wolverines’ running game has been a force to be reckoned with all year, ranking top 10 in rushing offense. Injuries have hit the backfield, with Justice Haynes sidelined after the Michigan State game and redshirt freshman Jordan Marshall suffering a shoulder injury against Northwestern. Despite that, junior Bryson Kuzdzal carried the load against Maryland last Saturday, rushing 20 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State will need to shed blocks and shut down the Michigan ground game, no matter who is running the ball for the Wolverines.
Battle of the underclassmen QBs for Ohio State and Michigan
I truly believe this game will come down to which freshman quarterback can step up and make plays for their team. Julian Sayin has been phenomenal for Ohio State and is a legitimate Heisman candidate, but without his two-star wideouts, the past couple of weeks have been a bit more pedestrian for him.
On Michigan’s side, Bryce Underwood is reportedly earning $3 million annually in NIL funds, according to On3. His 2025 season so far has been mixed. Through the air, he has 2,166 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, which isn’t exactly what you hope for at that price. On the ground, he has been more productive with 68 carries for 322 yards and five touchdowns. Still, paying $3 million for just nine passing touchdowns raises eyebrows.
In this game, however, it seems clear that success will hinge on quarterback play. Could Underwood rise to the occasion and lead Michigan to victory? It’s possible, but he struggled against another top-ranked defense earlier this season at Oklahoma, going just nine of 24 for 142 yards and no touchdowns. Expect Ohio State’s defense to load up against the run and force Underwood to try to beat the Buckeyes through the air against a stout secondary.
For Ohio State, the path is simpler. If Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are healthy and on the field, Julian Sayin can operate like he has all season and make the big plays. Based on what we’ve seen, it’s hard not to favor Sayin over Underwood in this matchup.
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day exorcises his Michigan
This game feels oddly reminiscent of 2019. Back then, Ohio State came in undefeated and ranked No. 1, facing a 9-2 Michigan team ranked No. 13 in Ann Arbor. Fast forward to today, and the scenario is eerily similar. Ohio State is No. 1 and 11-0, while Michigan is 9-2 and ranked No. 18, again with the game in Ann Arbor. In 2019, the Buckeyes were favored by nine, and this year the spread is 9.5 in their favor. Some strange omens seem to be aligning for Ohio State nearly six years later.
Last year, Ryan Day may have overthought things, trying to beat Michigan with its own style of physical, run-heavy football. It backfired, as Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined for just 22 carries and 67 yards, leaving the offense stalled.
This year, Day seems ready to take a different approach. Expect him to open up the playbook, letting Julian Sayin sling the ball to Carnell Tate, Jeremiah Smith, and a deep roster of pass catchers, forcing Michigan to keep pace through the air. If everything clicks, Ryan Day will earn his second victory over Michigan and in the Big House, as Ohio State secures its 12th win of the season.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: 5 reasons Ohio State will beat Michigan on Saturday in Ann Arbor
Reporting by Griffin Dreifaldt, Buckeyes Wire / Buckeyes Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
