The Buffalo Bills head to Pittsburgh this weekend with a 7-4 record and everything on the line.
Both the Bills and the 6-5 Steelers are in must-win situations, with the Bills currently occupying the final wild-card spot in playoff seedings.
The Bills have struggled during away games, with a 2-3 record so far in 2025. Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph under center, Pittsburgh is expected to stick with the formula that’s worked against Buffalo.
Despite that, most analysts favor Buffalo.
The Bills are favored by 3.5 points, according to BetMGM, with an over/under of 47.5. A $210 bet on Buffalo to win would net $100, while a $100 wager on Pittsburgh would return $175.
Democrat and Chronicle: Bills 24, Steelers 17
Sal Maiorana writes: “This one is pretty simple for me. I don’t think the Steelers are very good and if the Bills can’t beat them — even though the game is on the road in a tough environment — then we shouldn’t even be contemplating Buffalo’s viability as a postseason team.
It won’t be easy because games against the Steelers rarely are, and they’re in just as desperate a situation in the standings as Buffalo because right now they’re on the outside of the top seven.
But the Bills are the better team in this matchup, with the superior quarterback, and if Josh Allen and RB James Cook can get any help from the rest of the offensive skill players, and the injury-ravaged defense can play the way it did in the second half against Houston, the Bills should win the game.
AZCentral: Bills 24, Steelers 23
Jeremy Cluff writes: “This is a must-win game for both teams after they suffered rough losses in Week 12. Josh Allen’s running ability will help the Bills bounce back with a close win on the road.”
Sportsnaut: Bills 27, Steelers 21
Matt Johnson writes: “The Buffalo Bills offense won’t lay an egg like that again, at least not anytime soon. Joe Brady needs to go back to feeding James Cook, especially in this matchup versus Pittsburgh. Besides, as recent weeks have demonstrated, you can have some success passing on the Steelers secondary. As for Pittsburgh’s path to victory, it should center around Jaylen Warren going to work against a defense that has allowed a 5.3 yards-per-carry average this season. Maybe Aaron Rodgers surprises us, but we’re betting on Cook and Josh Allen carrying Buffalo to a victory.”
CBS Sports: Bet it now, Buffalo -3.5 vs. Steelers
Will Brinson writes: “Last week’s performance by Josh Allen against the Texans was as bad as you can get. Allen was humiliated and the Bills’ chances of winning the AFC East were probably snuffed out. Buffalo now sits seventh in the AFC playoff standings, right on the verge of making or missing the postseason.
“Allen has to go on the road again, but he gets a Steelers defense that has been very hit or miss this season. I think we’re about to get two weeks of peak Josh Allen, with the reigning MVP doing MVP things.
“Just two weeks ago he threw and ran for a total of six touchdowns, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we got at least four from him here in what’s become a pretty big must-win situation for the Bills.
“It’s unfortunate timing for the Steelers, particularly if the Ravens hold serve on Thanksgiving.”
COVERS: Take the Steelers and the under
Jason Logan writes: Steelers +4.5
“The spread is all over the place due to Aaron Rodgers’ fractured left wrist. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ veteran QB was held out for Week 12’s loss to Chicago and is listed as questionable for Week 13.
“Some books have the Buffalo Bills at -3.5, while others are at -4. However, FanDuel is on the other side of the underrated key number of four, offering the home team at +4.5. At that spread, I’ll grab the home underdog with a dangerous defense.
“The Steelers’ stop unit was stagnant to start the season, but has found its stride, at least as it pertains to “game-changing” plays. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in sacks and third in takeaways, including a fumble recovery for a touchdown in Week 12.
“Even with backup QB Mason Rudolph under center, Pittsburgh should move the chains on this Bills defense. Buffalo has been bad against the run, and the Steelers rumbled for 186 yards on the ground against Chicago.”
Under 47.5
“This Over/Under opened at 47.5 points between two key numbers of 47 and 48. That allows the bookmakers wiggle room when Rodgers’ status is updated. While the gap between Rodgers and Rudolph may not be that wide, the former MVP does still hold clout with the betting public.
“Regardless of who’s under center, the Steelers will play possession football on the offensive side in an attempt to attack Buffalo’s soft spot but also limit Josh Allen’s touches. Pittsburgh ran 36 times and chewed up more than 33 minutes in the loss to the Bears.
“Buffalo could take a similar ground-and-pound approach. The Bills are the No. 2 rushing offense in DVOA at FTN, and face a Steelers run stop that sits in the lower third of the league. Pittsburgh hopes to get standout LB Alex Highsmith back for Week 13.
“The weather could also slow things down in the Steel City, as extended forecasts show a possibility of rain and snow with temperatures around 40 degrees at Acrisure Stadium, where the terrible turf is slick in even the best of conditions.”
Dimers: Bills 25, Steelers 22
Dimers writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bills a win probability of 60%, while the Steelers have a win probability of 40%.”
ESPN: Bills win
ESPN analytics gives the Bills a 55.4% probability of winning.
— Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 31 years.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs. Steelers predictions show respect for Allen. What experts say
Reporting by Bill Wolcott, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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