Yes Purdue football fans, your team can knock Indiana football out of the Big Ten championship game with a win in the Old Oaken Bucket game Friday but you’ll need some help. Here are the scenarios:
Indiana football is in the Big Ten championship game if it wins
We’ll get the bad news out of the way first Boilermaker fans, if the Hoosiers win, they’re in. Only Indiana and Ohio State enter the final weekend of games undefeated so if they win, they’re in.
If Purdue beats Indiana, here are the scenarios:
Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon finish 8-1
Odds this happens: .1%
This requires wins by Purdue (a 27.5-point underdog), Michigan (13.5-point underdog) and Oregon (vs. Washington, 11.5-point favorite).
These four teams did not all play each other and the only common opponent is Wisconsin (a win for everyone) so it goes to best conference opponents’ record:
Oregon: .521
Ohio State: .425
Michigan: .419
Indiana: .342
Oregon’s opponent would be determined by the results of the finals days but Indiana can’t have a better record than Michigan and Ohio State even if every game breaks its way so it is eliminated from the Big Ten championship in this scenario.
Ohio State is 9-0, Indiana and Oregon are 8-1
Odds this happens: .7%
This requires Ohio State, Purdue and Oregon to win and it puts Indiana in the Big Ten championship due to its win over Oregon.
Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana finish 8-1
Odds this happens: .03%
This requires Michigan, Purdue and Washington to win. The scenario gives us a rematch in the Big Ten title game between Ohio State and Michigan because Purdue is a common opponent having lost to the Buckeyes and Wolverines but beating the Hoosiers.
Sorry, Purdue fans. The odds aren’t good. So Purdue AND Michigan need to win to eliminate Indiana from the Big Ten championship, and there’s a .13% chance that happens based on the win probabilities of the spreads.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Can Purdue knock Indiana football out of the Big Ten championship game?
Reporting by Nat Newell, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
