The Florida Gators picked up two more wins since Gators Wire last checked in on the ESPN College Basketball Power Index, and victories over Miami (82-68) and Merrimack (80-45) have the Orange and Blue ranked No. 7 heading into Thanksgiving.
The schedule picks up from here, with a multi-team event featuring Providence, TCU and Wisconsin, starting Thanksgiving Day, followed by two matchups with top-10 teams. The Duke Blue Devils sit at No. 1 on the BPI, and the UConn Huskies are ranked No. 12, despite being a top-5 program in the latest national polls. Needless to say, Florida stands to gain a lot of ground if it can pull off a clean sweep over the next four games.
Heading into Feast Week, Florida has a 19.4 overall BPI — up from 18.5 after the win over Florida State. The offense has dropped from 9.0 (20th) to 8.4 (21st), but the Gators’ defense has jumped significantly from 9.5 (5th) to 11.0 (4th). ESPN projects Florida to go 21.9-8.1 overall and 12.5-5.5 in conference play — about a one-win increase from the previous update.
“The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.”
Florida remains the favorite to win the conference, with ESPN increasing the odds to 42.1% from 32.7%. Tennessee (25.6%) overtook Kentucky (19.6%) for the second-best odds, with Auburn (19.7%) also leapfrogging Big Blue. Because the rest of the SEC is perceived as slightly weaker than it was two weeks ago, Florida’s remaining strength of schedule sits at No. 20 overall.
Strength of Record/Schedule
Arizona continues to impress nationally, which makes the opening-night loss for Florida more bearable, at least from an analytical standpoint. Those in-state wins over Florida State and Miami should also age well, especially once conference play gets underway. As a result, Florida’s strength of record is up to No. 24 from No. 36. Overall strength of schedule is also up, jumping to No. 30 from No. 56.
While the terms are similar, strength of record “reflects the chance a typical 25th-ranked team would have the same record or better,” while strength of schedule does the same but considers “game location, day’s rest, travel distance and high altitude.” ESPN differentiates between the complete strength of schedule and the non-conference strength of schedule, but conference play has not begun.
It’s too early to start seeding teams for the NCAA Tournament, so ESPN has left those data points blank.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida moving up ESPN Basketball Power Index ahead of Thanksgiving
Reporting by David Rosenberg, Gators Wire / Gators Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
