Following USC football’s loss to the Oregon Ducks, many people including Paul Finebaum of ESPN have offered the opinion that the Trojans probably should regret moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, because they haven’t achieved national relevance since switching conferences.
That’s clearly not true if you watched USC football in 2025, at least not the way that Finebaum and others are arguing it.
The Trojans (largely) handled their Big Ten schedule in 2025, including a couple of big home ranked wins against Michigan and Iowa.
Their season fell short because they can’t beat opponents that they would have played anyway as a member of the Pac-12. Let’s talk about it.
USC stunk in the Big Ten in 2024, admittedly
USC did have a rough first season in the Big Ten in 2024. The Trojans were 7-6 last season, including 4-5 in conference play.
The big storyline from that result: USC was 0-4 in true conference road games outside of Los Angeles (USC’s only true road win was against UCLA in the Rose Bowl). That also included losses to 2 teams that finished with losing records: Washington (6-7) and Maryland (4-8). USC was a mediocre Big Ten team at home in 2024 and one of the worst teams in the conference on the road. The conference was tough for the Trojans to overcome.
USC’s Big Ten success in 2025
But the Trojans took steps forward in several departments in the Big Ten conference in 2025. They won the aforementioned home games against two proud programs that were ranked at the time of the game (Michigan, Iowa).
USC also won two Big Ten road games against Purdue and Nebraska. Neither team is great, but that’s still an improvement over last season. Remember, USC lost to Maryland in 2024, a team that went 1-8 in Big Ten play. Yes, Maryland’s only conference win in 2024 was against USC.
USC’s biggest losses to very familiar opponents
But despite those steps forward, USC still finds itself falling short of the playoff in 2025. Why? Three losses: to Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon.
USC’s loss to Illinois was a painstaking Big Ten misstep. But Oregon and Notre Dame are familiar opponents for USC. Oregon was, of course, part of the Pac-12 conference with USC before both teams left for the Big Ten, and Notre Dame is a conference independent that USC has played a rivalry game against for decades and decades.
Even if USC (and Oregon) had Pac-12 logos on their chests in 2025, USC would have still lost those two games and would have had to be perfect otherwise to have a chance to make the College Football Playoff.
The Illinois/Washington/Utah problem
It’s not just Notre Dame and Oregon in 2025. During their first two seasons in the Big Ten, USC is 1-4 against opponents they would have likely played even if they were still a member of the Pac-12.
That includes 2 losses to Notre Dame, a loss to Oregon and a loss to Washington in 2024. USC’s only win thus far is against UCLA in 2024. They could improve to 2-4 in this category with a win against the Bruins this weekend.
USC would have had an easier conference slate if it was in the Pac-12 in 2025. But, remember, if the Trojans played Notre Dame and Oregon, they would have needed to be perfect otherwise to make the CFP with two losses (which, who knows if the committee would even let a 2-loss Pac-12 team into the playoff).
Are we so sure USC would have been undefeated against everyone except Oregon and Notre Dame? What if USC had to play Washington again? The Huskies aren’t elite, but they give everyone a game. What about Utah? Arizona? Arizona State? They’re all solid teams in 2025.
Yes, USC is better than all of those teams on paper but the Trojans are also better than Illinois on paper. I think the game against the Illini tells us all we need to know. I’m not confident they would have beaten all of those teams, especially on the road.
Oregon on the other hand almost certainly would be undefeated in Pac-12 play and I’d pick them to beat USC in a conference championship game rematch, as well.
So maybe USC wouldn’t even need to lose to another opponent besides Oregon and Notre Dame. Oregon could just do it twice — and USC would miss the CFP as a 3-loss Pac-12 team no matter what.
USC’s real problem
USC’s real problem is not with its conference, it’s with beating top competition regardless of conference.
USC is now 6-13 against ranked opponents in the Lincoln Riley era. They are 0-5 against teams ranked in the Top 10. They are 1-7 against ranked opponents on the road, with their one win coming against UCLA at the Rose Bowl in 2022.
Changing conferences hasn’t changed the results for USC. They are still good at home. They did well against inferior teams in 2025. If anything, they improved in those two categories.
But they lose to the best of the best. It doesn’t matter if they’re old Pac-12 opponents, new Big Ten opponents, non conference opponents.
To be the best you need to beat the best. In the Pac-12 and Big Ten, Lincoln Riley and USC haven’t been able to beat the best. That’s the real problem — a problem that 2025 clearly showed wasn’t made better or worse by moving to the B1G.
So that’s the challenge for 2026: beat the best. Whether that is a Big Ten conference opponent like Ohio State or a non conference opponent like Notre Dame.
Moving to the Big Ten was never going to solve USC’s problems. The Trojans have to do that themselves.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: USC wouldn’t have been competitive in the Pac-12 this year
Reporting by Ethan Inman, Trojans Wire / Trojans Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
