Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia looks ahead to the first game of the final stretch for Michigan football as the Wolverines travel to Chicago to take on Northwestern at Wrigley Field.
Fast facts
Matchup: No. 17 Michigan (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) vs. Northwestern (5-4, 3-3).
Kickoff: Noon, Saturday, Nov. 15; Wrigley Field; Chicago.
TV/radio: Fox; WCSX-FM (94.7).
Line: Wolverines by 12½
Michigan football vs. Purdue availability report
Michigan Week 12 expected availability: Out for season: WR I’Marion Stewart, RB Donovan Johnson, OL Andrew Babalola, DL Devon Baxter, WR C.J. Charleston, LB Jaydon Hood; Out: OL Evan Link, RB Justice Haynes, DB Rod Moore; Questionable: LB Jimmy Rolder, LB Jaishawn Barham, LB Cole Sullivan, TE Hogan Hansen; Probable: WR Donaven McCulley, TE Marlin Klein.
Northwestern Week 12 availability: Out for season: Cam Porter, Yannis Karlaftis, Jalen Lewis, Dylan Roberts; Out: Seth Valeri, Evan Smith, Damon Walters, Cole Shivers, Tate Crane, Jason Reynolds II, Richie Hagarty, Tanner Jumpp, Jace Bocherding, Chris Petrucci, Braden Blueitt, Cam Russell; Questionable: Joseph Himon II, Dashun Reeder.
Scouting report
When Michigan has the ball: Michigan’s offense has embraced its identity as a run-first attack as the season has gone on. The Wolverines have scored 32 touchdowns this season, 25 of which have come on the ground. The past two times out U-M hasn’t had much success throwing the ball, with Bryce Underwood completing just 21 of 39 passes for 231 yards and no touchdowns against lowly MSU and Purdue. It doesn’t get easier against a pass defense rated in the top-25 coming in. Expect a heavy dose of running back Jordan Marshall to set the tone, but coach Sherrone Moore said his backups, Bryson Kuzdzal and Jasper Parker, will both get some run, too, with Justice Haynes sidelined with injury. Donaven McCulley and Andrew Marsh have been the most reliable pass catchers and don’t be surprised if true freshman Jamar Browder joins them in many three-wide sets as the Wolverines continue to search for a spark.
When Northwestern has the ball: The Wildcats aren’t a particularly high-powered attack, but they know exactly who they know how to control the ball and shorten the game. NU is No. 13 in the country, holding onto the ball for 32 minutes and 40 seconds per game on average and they’ve done so by being efficient on third downs, ranked No. 29 in the country converting 46.3% of such plays. U-M’s defense has once again been its calling card, but third downs have been a bit of a problem spot, ranked No. 57 in the country allowing 37.6% conversions. Northwestern is a sub-par offense at No. 95 in total attack (351.3 yards per game) and even worse at No. 106 (21.9 points) in scoring and has scored between 17-22 points in each of its past four Big Ten games.
Know the foe
Keep eyes on Komolafe: NU was rightfully concerned when Cam Porter went down early this year; a fifth-year player with more than 2,300 yards and 19 touchdowns in his career. However, Caleb Komolafe has taken the starting tail back job and run with it. The junior has 141 carries for 726 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns. He has gone over 100 yards on the ground in three Big Ten games this season and has scored in five of six games in the league, including a career-high 158 yards of offense and a touchdown last week at USC after running for 125 and two scores at Nebraska.
Passin’ Preston: The SMU transfer quarterback started slowly with no TDs and four interceptions in his first game for the Wildcats. Since then, he’s thrown 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions, which includes eight TDs and two picks (both vs. Nebraska) in the pass six games as he’s gotten more comfortable with the offense. His favorite target is Griffin Wilde (43 catches for 593 yards and five touchdowns) who has more than double the production in every category to the next closest player. Stone has completed just 59.3% of his attempts and been sacked 12 times, so there’s a chance to disrupt him, but he rarely gets fully rattled.
Don’t sleep on defenders: The Wildcats have a winning record because of their stingy defense. They’re tied for No. 21 in scoring defense (19.11 points per game), No. 32 in total defense (323.9 yards) and don’t make costly mistakes − NU is No. 5 in the country in fewest penalties (32) on the season. Watch for DB Robert Fitzgerald and defensive linemen Anto Saka, Aidan Hubbard and Carmine Bastone.
Tony Garcia’s two cents
Wrigley woes: The Wildcats have never won a game at Wrigley Field in their history, which included two losses last season. The Wolverines will have a massive fan contingent at the game, which will make this feel like a neutral site if not pro-Michigan. “We’ve been pretty good at home this year, and we’re playing at home,” NU coach David Braun told reporters. “We say we’re Chicago’s Big Ten team. We’re playing in Chicago, playing at the friendly confines. We’re playing at home. That’s the way that we have to do this.”
Special teams boost: Michigan is No. 131 in the nation in punt returns, No. 126 in kickoff returns and No. 64 in net punting. Overall, the unit has been somewhere between bad and terrible. On what’s expected to be a windy day in Chicago, somebody on this unit is going to have to make a game-changing play. With three snaps, special teams captain Joe Taylor will have taken the most special teams snaps of any player in U-M history (passing Jordan Glasgow at 886).
Tony Garcia’s prediction
Neither of these teams have scored much in Big Ten play, which could lend this to being a lower scoring game than many think. U-M has scored more than 24 just twice in Big Ten games while Northwestern has been held to 22 or fewer in every league game this year. This will be a slugfest with just a handful of game-changing plays, but more will come from U-M’s side. Look for a big Andrew Marsh catch to help turn the tide and then Jordan Marshall to start cooking late. It’s close, but U-M has just enough talent to get across the finish line. The pick: Michigan 23, Northwestern 16.
Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs Northwestern scouting report, prediction at Wrigley Field
Reporting by Tony Garcia, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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