Joe Burrow returns on Thanksgiving for the Cincinnati Bengals in Baltimore against the Ravens, a primetime, holiday AFC North showdown that pits his team’s season on the line.
Burrow’s Bengals enter the contest at 3-8 after being able to scrape together just a single win during his absence since mid-September. Broadly speaking, he’ll need to help them rattle off six straight wins to close the season at 9-8 to give them any real shot at the playoffs.
But part of the reason Burrow has returned ahead of schedule is because things aren’t totally out of hand, even at 3-8.
The Ravens, after all, lead the AFC North at just 6-5. The Bengals play them twice over the next three weeks. A date against Buffalo in the AFC is also on the schedule. Ditto for conference matchups with Miami and Cleveland. They close the season with two games against teams currently 3-8, too.
Still, it’s a slim glimmer of hope. Burrow hasn’t played meaningful football since September 14, his cleat will have a protective device in it and his offensive playbook might be dialed down.
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As if Burrow is the problem, of course.
The Bengals haven’t been able to put together a complete game all season. While Joe Flacco put up elite numbers behind a suddenly improved offensive line, Al Golden’s defense was on pace to literally be the worst ever. When the defense woke up last week against New England, Flacco managed to throw for 183 yards on 37 attempts.
Burrow’s offense? No Tee Higgins. The Bengals defense? No Trey Hendrickson.
Down key players, the Bengals will need to actually cobble together a complete game against a Ravens team that has won five in a row and has quarterback Lamar Jackson sitting on a 66.7 completion percentage with 15 scores against three interceptions this year. Derrick Henry has rumbled for nine rushing scores on a 4.7 average.
If there’s any optimism at all, it’s the Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection. Chase dominates the Ravens, historically, and put up 457 yards and five scores on 21 catches against Baltimore last year.
There’s also at least a slight reason to suggest the Ravens are a bit of fool’s gold. They’ve found sudden defensive improvement over a five-game streak, but against opponents with 8-3, 4-7, 4-7, 3-8 and 2-9 records.
The Bengals are 3-8, too, but none of those Ravens opponents had close to Burrow and Chase. None have historically exploited the matchup annually, either.
From an outsider’s perspective, it feels like the Bengals can pull off the upset on one condition: The offensive approach the unit found under Flacco remains with Burrow out there, too. The line is suddenly better and the running game has averaged 118.8 rushing yards per game over its last five outings.
Give Burrow that sort of ground game support and maybe a bit of the defense that showed up over the weekend against the Patriots and the upset can happen. If not, the sledgehammer Henry will only get more effective as the holiday night continues.
Right now? Chase is the x-factor who makes the game-changing play.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 24
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This article originally appeared on Bengals Wire: Final score predictions for Bengals vs. Ravens in Week 13
Reporting by Chris Roling, Bengals Wire / Bengals Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
