Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game Saturday at Iowa. Time: 3:35 p.m. (EDT). TV/Streaming: FS1/Fox Sports App. Betting line: Iowa -17
1. Can MSU move the ball and punch it in?
If you look at the teams close to MSU’s level that Iowa has played recently, Minnesota and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes have allowed them a mere three points total in those two games. So how the heck is MSU supposed to score? The Spartans haven’t been able to sustain drives with any consistency since Oct. 4, which is also the last time MSU scored more than 20 points in a single game. They’ve regressed in the red zone since making the change at quarterback. So what could possibly change this weekend?
Somehow MSU has to find a way to protect quarterback Alessio Milivojevic well enough to get some rhythm in the passing game and find success running the football. And then the Spartans have to empty the playbook if, and when, they get near the goal line. MSU has popped a few big gains on the ground recently, but hasn’t been able to lean on their running game for anything consistent. The Hawkeyes have given up some yards on the ground this Big Ten season. Mostly to Oregon, but Wisconsin, Penn State and USC had success there at times, too. The Spartans have got to find something — through timely trick plays, or a little more use of tight ends, or reigniting receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly, maybe an extra blocker to pick up pressure. Something. What they’ve been doing won’t come close to getting it done in Iowa City.
2. Can Milivojevic survive another week and make some strides?
Alessio Milivojevic has been sacked 12 times over the last two games. Some of the hits he took late against Penn State looked like knockout blows. MSU has to find a way to do better in protection. And Milivojevic, for all the credit he deserves for hanging in the pocket until the very last second, has to get the ball out quicker. Some of that is on offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren to call a game that gives Milivojevic a chance. Iowa has a terrific defense, but the Hawkeyes do not have a pass rush any more prolific than Penn State or Minnesota. The problem for MSU will come if it’s such a mismatch at the line of scrimmage that there’s no room or time for Milivojevic again. That’s definitely a possibility. If MSU can protect Milivojevic a little better than it has, does the Spartans’ redshirt freshman quarterback have a leap still in him this season? Given his age and what he’s shown already, that is also a possibility.
3. Iowa’s offense
The Hawkeyes offense has been mocked in recent years. This iteration isn’t so bad. It’s still not a scary passing attack, but it’s had some moments and Iowa’s ground game is solid — top five in the Big Ten, paced by running backs Kamari Moulton and Xavier Williams and a talented offensive line. Iowa is dinged up on the O-line, though the starters who went out with injuries last week reportedly are back in the fold for this one. This isn’t an electric rushing attack, but it eats up clock and wears down opponents. The Hawkeyes don’t have a back of Kaleb Johnson’s caliber, like last season. Johnson averaged 7 yards per carry against MSU in last year’s matchup, though the Spartans minimized his impact as best they could and had their most impressive win of the Jonathan Smith era.
This is a more balanced Hawkeyes offense, more potent overall, despite passing numbers that look dismal. Iowa put up 38 points on Rutgers, 37 on Wisconsin and 41 on Minnesota. The teams that have kept the Hawkeyes in the low 20s and teens have better defenses than the Spartans do. MSU’s defense has grown into the season in recent weeks, but still wears out, in part because they spend too much time on the field. I don’t think MSU can score more than 20 points on Iowa. So the Spartans’ defense is going to have to produce its best game yet.
4. MSU’s heads and Iowa’s mindset
I’ve been impressed that the Spartans haven’t let up as the season has gotten away from them. At some point, do they give into human nature? There’s no longer a chance at a bowl game, they’re playing a physical and more seasoned Iowa program, and on the road — MSU will have to be ready to fight to keep this from getting ugly. Are they up for that?
Conversely, Iowa’s lost two straight close games, to USC and Oregon. The Hawkeyes’ four losses this season are by a combined 15 minutes, all within a score. One might think the frustration and disappointment could lead to a dud effort. The problem here for MSU is that this Iowa team doesn’t seem wired for that. It doesn’t help that it’s senior day for Iowa, or that MSU beat the Hawkeyes last year in East Lansing. I don’t think the Spartans are catching them in a good spot.
5. Does MSU have a moment in them?
If MSU had held on to beat Minnesota, Elijah Tau-Tolliver’s 83-yard run late in the fourth quarter would qualify as a moment — really the first since overtime against Boston College. This MSU team needs another one. A couple great pass plays or runs, a pick-six, a sack-fumble, probably a combination of those things. The Spartans need someone to make a play, to have a game-defining performance, something unexpected, something good. They’re running out of time.
MORE: Couch: Michigan State football needs someone who can change the energy around the program
Prediction
If MSU hadn’t beaten Iowa last year, if it wasn’t senior day for the Hawkeyes, if Iowa had shown any let-up this season, if the Spartans had shown any sign that they were physically capable of winning a game like this … maybe then you could picture an upset. I just don’t see any way it happens.
Make it: Iowa: 30, MSU 10
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Iowa: 5 determining factors and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
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