Happy Thanksgiving! The national spotlight, as it always does on this turkey day, shifts to Detroit for some Lions football to kick off the holiday afternoon.
Today’s game is a big one. The 7-4 Lions host the 7-3-1 Green Bay Packers in a critical NFC North matchup, with both teams looking up at the 8-3 Chicago Bears. Lions fans and Packers fans find common ground in skeptically viewing the upstart Bears and their negative point differential on the season, but this Thanksgiving matinee will almost certainly decide which challenger emerges as Chicago’s biggest threat.
Yes, I typed that sentence. Yes, it’s awkwardly accurate. That’s where we’re at in Week 13, with two battered teams about to beat the stuffing out of one another for the right to seize control of second place to…the Bears? Yeah. Pass the gravy.
This is a big one. It’s a very even game, too. If they played 100 times, I think the Lions would win 51 of them, but the Packers showed in Week 1 that they’re perfectly capable of beating Detroit.
Why I think the Lions will win
These Lions have proven time and again that they respond to challenges well under Dan Campbell. This one is a slightly different circumstance, as the Lions aren’t coming off a loss. Yet the underwhelming game against the Giants a week ago sure feels like one.
It’s not exactly do-or-die, but if the Lions want to carry realistic playoff aspirations beyond Thursday, they have to win. I expect a veteran team to understand the gravitas of the situation. I expect them to perform better than they did in a flat, unprepared Week 1 loss in Green Bay. I expect them to bounce back defensively from a relatively rough outing against the Giants, a very different style of team than the Packers.
Green Bay figures to struggle in coverage when they can’t impact Jared Goff. That’s been the key to opposing defenses foiling the Lions, and the Packers certainly have the ability to make life uncomfortable for the Lions veteran QB. The recent outburst of big-play production from Jahymr Gibbs should help ease some pressure on the offensive line and Goff.
The Lions should have a distinct coaching advantage. I’ll take Dan Campbell in a big game over Matt LaFleur any day, and I suspect most folks outside of Wisconsin would too. Playing in Ford Field on Thanksgiving, with Kelvin Sheppard’s aggressive defense getting Terrion Arnold and Marcus Davenport back in the mix, should create issues for the Packers offense. It’s a much more cohesive, disciplined defense than the one Jordan Love & Co. exploited in Week 1.
Of all teams, the Cleveland Browns showed the blueprint for frustrating the Packers. Even with completely immobile QB Joe Flacco behind a porous line, the Browns found a way to win by being opportunistic, running the ball well, smothering the run and making Love beat them over the top while under pressure. Detroit’s defense has that potential, but it will require more than just Aidan Hutchinson being a pass-rush threat, even sporadically.
The Packers offensive struggles are real; they haven’t topped 300 total yards of offense since Week 9, a game they lost to the Panthers. Good defenses can tighten the screws and control them. I believe Detroit’s defense is a good one, though they’ll need to be sharper than a week ago, or in Week 1.
What concerns me about the Packers
Green Bay is a good football team that is occasionally a great one. That’s a fairly accurate assessment of Love at quarterback, too. But injuries have hit the Packers hard, and they’re still working through not having TE Tucker Kraft–their most reliable weapon. Josh Jacobs coming back is the sort of running back who can exploit overaggressiveness from the Lions LBs, who uncharacteristically displayed some of that a week ago.
Micah Parsons and the defensive front going against the Lions offensive line playing without starting center Graham Glasgow is probably the biggest Xs vs Os matchup in the game. They can attack the A-gap and the Packers have a pair of LBs in Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper who can make plays. If the Lions can’t hit some plays early to keep them honest, this will not be a good opponent for the Lions to play catch-up against. Not one bit.
Honestly, there’s a lot to like about the Packers if you take off the Lions’ fan glasses. They do play hard. They do have talent in key spots, though not quite to the level of the Lions. What is perhaps the biggest concern is that the Packers know they can beat the Lions. They definitively whipped Detroit in the opener. That’s got to give them confidence rolling into Ford Field. The fact the Packers, like the Lions, didn’t play very well last week and still won (thanks J.J. McCarthy) should help foment that confidence, too.
One last concern that could very well be nothing more than existential anxiety on my part after driving through a blizzard on Tuesday: there is very real pressure on the Lions to get this one, less so for Green Bay–but still quite a bit of urgency from the Cheeseheads. If things don’t start well, and the Packers have the NFL’s best first-quarter defense, I have very real concerns that the Lions will keep digging the hole while trying too furiously to claw out of it. Hope not.
Final score prediction
In Dan Campbell we trust. In Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Aidan Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Jameson Williams, D.J. Reed, Brian Branch, Alim McNeill and the Lions proven star power I trust–very tentatively. Happy Thanksgiving, win or lose.
Lions 26, Packers 23
This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: Lions vs Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction
Reporting by Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire / Lions Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
