The Michigan Wolverines as 2025 Big Ten football champions? It’s still possible.
Michigan (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten) will be facing No. 1-ranked Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) in their annual rivalry game Saturday, Nov. 29 at noon ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
No conference championship scenario comes with a Michigan loss, meaning it must beat Ohio State for a fifth straight season to keep conference title hopes alive.
But if the Wolverines can pull off the upset, things will get interesting in their quest for a conference title.
Big Ten championship game scenarios
There are four Big Ten teams competing for two spots in the conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 6: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan.
Both Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated, giving each the inside track to Indy, while Oregon and Michigan each have one loss and need to win and get help to make the title game.
A Michigan win over Ohio State will supercharge its candidacy for the College Football Playoff, but won’t guarantee it a spot for the conference title in Indianapolis, with Michigan appearing in only three of the seven potential title-game scenarios.
Let’s break them all down.
If Michigan wins against Ohio State …
Here’s how Michigan can make the Big Ten title game:
This would leave two teams tied for second (Michigan and Ohio State) with the Wolverines advancing on a head-to-head tiebreaker. (Oregon is a touchdown favorite at Washington on Saturday. Michigan is a 10-point home underdog against Ohio State.)
Michigan would not make the Big Ten title game if this happens:
This would place Indiana on top of the Big Ten with Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon tied for second with an 8-1 conference record. In this scenario, Oregon would advance to the title game to play Indiana on a common conference opponent tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan. Oregon just beat USC; Michigan lost at USC.
Here’s two more ways Michigan can make the Big Ten title game, but both require Purdue (2-9, 0-8), at home, shocking Indiana as four-touchdown underdogs on Friday night:
This is by far the most complicated scenario since it would leave all four teams at 8-1 and require seven tiebreakers to untangle the mess, but it would leave Oregon at No. 1 in the conference and Michigan at No. 2.
Michigan can also make the Big Ten title game if this happens:
This is the wildest scenario. See below.
Can Michigan and Ohio State play in Big Ten championship game?
Yes, a rematch between the Wolverines and Buckeyes for the 2025 conference title is possible. Here’s how:
This would have Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan tied atop the conference, with Indiana eliminated on a common opponent tiebreaker (losing to Purdue), and Michigan getting the top seed on a head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State. OSU finishes second, setting up a second straight matchup between the rivals.
Have Michigan and Ohio State played each other in Big Ten championship game?
Not in football. Until 2024, the Wolverines and Buckeyes were in the same division, meaning they could not meet in the conference title game.
Once the Big Ten expanded to 18 teams, it ditched divisions. The top two teams in the conference now meet in the Big Ten championship, no matter if they’ve already played in the regular season or not.
In 2024, Oregon defeated Penn State, 45-37.
If Michigan loses to Ohio State …
There is no scenario that has Michigan in the conference championship game with a loss. If Michigan loses, you can pencil in Ohio State and Indiana into the championship game regardless of the other outcomes.
Indiana and Ohio State will clinch a berth to the title game with wins. This is the cleanest and most likely scenario.
If Ohio State wins but Indiana loses, Indiana would still advance regardless of the outcome of the Oregon-Washington game, since the Hoosiers own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ducks.
Basically, Indiana fans are rooting for Ohio State, and Oregon fans are rooting for Michigan – a reverse of last week, when Michigan fans were rooting for Oregon to beat USC.
Got all that? Good! Now, let’s play some football!
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 3 ways Michigan football can make Big Ten title – and an OSU rematch
Reporting by Christian Romo, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
