Few people are looking at Michigan football vs. Ohio State this weekend and giving the Wolverines a chance. No. 1 OSU is too good, too powerful, does everything well, and it doesn’t really matter that that’s been the case the past four years, when the maize and blue have beaten the Buckeyes.
But Josh Pate gets it.
The host of his eponymous show broke down The Game in his preview on Tuesday, and he rightly looked first at the stat that has determined the winner since the year 2000.
“So tell me one thing about the game. Who has more rushing yards?” Pate said. “If anyone knows, if anyone has the crystal ball and you can look into it, because I’m going to tell you that’s probably who wins The Game. And the reason I’m going to say that, another paper popper of a stat here, is total rush yards, the team that wins that, a little mini battle within the battle, has won the game since 2001. Every game since 2001 has been won by the team that had more rushing yards.
“Run defense in this game, Ohio State 2, Michigan 11. It’s tough to come by rushing offenses in this game. Ohio State in the 50s, Michigan No. 10. That’s a Michigan shot. I mean, Michigan’s got to be able to do it, and they can do it with a quarterback as well. Obviously, no Justice Haynes for Michigan. Jordan Marshall, yes. Bryce Underwood, I think’s got to get some stuff done with his legs in this game.
“But I’m going to say this again, like I said last year, Ohio State holds all the keys here. It sounds a little disrespectful to Michigan, but I mean it in a couple of ways. The first set of keys that Ohio State holds is to all of college football, because if Ohio State is as good as they’ve looked, very few teams can compete with them on a neutral field, which is what the playoff would be. So there’s a very, very small handful of teams that could ever hope to win the championship. If Ohio State is even just a smidge overrated, or if they’re outright fraudulent, which I doubt, but humor me here, then they’re like 8 to 10 teams that could win it all.
“So, Ohio State holds all the cards to the college football playoff in terms of variants, but they also hold the cards here because their plan A has worked all season. Like, if you’ve watched Ohio State games, when have they had to deviate? When has the fastball not worked? They’ve been able to throw that thing 98 with pretty much pinpoint accuracy all year, and it doesn’t really matter. If you can paint in the upper 90s, you don’t need a devastating 12 to 6 curveball. Like you don’t need a changeup that falls off a cliff lower black. You don’t need all that, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have it. So they could have all that.”
Pate went on to say OSU should ignore the rushing battle metrics and work to play its game and try to throw the ball all over the yard. He, like everyone else, doesn’t give much credence to the Michigan defense, which was throttled against USC earlier this year (Pate does mention this). But even so, when it comes to picking the winner, Pate threw a curveball that most probably wouldn’t expect, and it’s certainly out of line with the current media consensus.
“FanDuel’s got Ohio State -10.5 right now,” Pate said. “Our model’s got Ohio State -10. I picked this game the moment last year’s game ended. I am not going to be proven wrong in this game by Ohio State losing again, so I think Ohio State’s the better team. Model thinks Ohio State wins and wins comfortably. Everything about my breakdown of the game leans me towards Ohio State. I couldn’t care less until further notice.
“Michigan will win this game. Michigan covers. Michigan money line, and look, if that’s what it takes for Ryan Day and company to win this game, is for me to pick against them, then I’ll be happy to take the fall for you. I’m just saying, I’ve tried to ride with you the past four years. You guys have done this to me. Michigan has done this to me as well, so it’s inexplicable. Look, you heard the breakdown. I don’t have a ton of ammunition for Michigan right now. You think I had reasons to pick them last year? No. They won anyway, so I expect an outcome that is void of reason until further notice.”
After the Nebraska game this year, Pate recognized that Michigan continues to subvert expectations. Will Michigan prevail this week and prove him right for once? Or will the Wolverines falter to a superior team? We’ll know more on Saturday.
This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: Despite stats favoring OSU, Josh Pate still predicts Michigan win
Reporting by Isaiah Hole, Wolverines Wire / Wolverines Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
