BEIJING, Dec 5 (Reuters) – China’s exports likely returned to growth in November after an unexpected dip in October, as manufacturers rushed to move inventory to take advantage of a fresh tariff truce with the U.S.
In a deal in late October that followed a sharp escalation in tensions between the world’s top two economies, President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to trim their tariffs and pause a raft of other measures.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-biggest economy in November were expected to have risen by 3.8% by value year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 20 economists in a Reuters poll, after a 1.1% contraction a month earlier – the worst performance since February.
Imports were forecast to have climbed 2.8%, compared with a lacklustre 1.0% gain the month earlier, as a protracted property slump continues to drag on consumer confidence and the broader economy.
Manufacturers have spent the past year trying to tap new markets in Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, but slowing global growth and rising trade barriers mean factory owners are struggling to replenish order books even as tensions between Beijing and Washington ease.
China’s factory activity shrank for an eighth month in November, an official manufacturing survey showed, with new orders and new export orders remaining in contraction.
Economists estimate that diminished access to the U.S. market has reduced China’s export growth by roughly 2 percentage points, equivalent to around 0.3% of GDP. Despite the truce, Trump’s levies on Chinese goods remain around 50%, weighing heavily on the more than $400 billion in annual exports to the world’s top consumer market.
China is likely to stick to its current annual economic growth target of around 5% next year, government advisers and analysts said, as Beijing is set to embark on a new five-year plan with sharper focus on boosting consumer demand and advancing technological self-reliance.
China’s November trade surplus is expected to rise to $100.15 billion, up from $90.07 billion in October but still below the monthly average of $110.7 billion recorded so far this year.
The official data from China’s customs administration will be released on Monday at 11 a.m. (0300 GMT).
(Reporting by Xiuhao Chen and Joe Cash; Polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in ShanghaiEditing by Shri Navaratnam)
