Of all the trades Matt Arnold has made in his four years as the head of the Milwaukee Brewers baseball operations, this one is unparalleled in its shock factor.
Unlike trades that sent out all-star pitchers Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta with one year remaining before free agency, this time Arnold and the Brewers turned the entire baseball world into the guy from the blinking eye GIF on a post-Super Bowl Monday morning Feb. 9.
If you’re not sure what to make of the trade that sent out not only Caleb Durbin with six years of team control but also the only two reserve left-side infielders on the 40-man roster two days before pitchers and catchers officially report, worry not: You surely were not alone.
We’ll get into the acquisition of pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan and infielder David Hamilton – which shapes up as a quintessential Brewers haul the more you look at it – but let’s begin with the question that fans (and baseball media at large, too) is asking in the immediate aftermath of the deal.
What’s next for the Brewers?
After dealing away Durbin as well as infielders Andrew Monasterio and Anthony Seigler, the Brewers now enter camp with only three non-first basemen infielders on their 40-man roster: Hamilton, Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. Jett Williams, acquired from the New York Mets in the Peralta deal, is also in that mix, although he’s not on the 40-man roster yet.
Cooper Pratt and Brock Wilken, the projected left side of the Class AAA Nashville infield, will both be in big-league camp but it would be “a major outside shot” for either to make the team on opening day or early in the season, as one source put it. (And if you’re dreaming crazy on Jesús Made making the team, that’s even less of a likelihood; it’s too early for there to have been no extension talks from the sides, either).
Take all of this information and the reasonable conclusion would be that the Brewers will make a move to bolster their infield in the coming weeks.
That is certainly a strong possibility. It’s been speculated for essentially the past 16 months that the Brewers would upgrade the left side of the infield, but at no point did their motivations to strike a deal match the cost (this is why it wasn’t a surprise when they didn’t go in big on third baseman Eugenio Suárez at last year’s deadline). This time, the Brewers will be hunting for someone to step in, but don’t consider it a guarantee.
That’s because, as one league source said, the Brewers are happy with their infield depth beyond simply lip service.
The biggest name that remains available is Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes, who’s the odd man out in a crowded Astros position player picture. You can expect the Brewers to engage with Houston in talks for the 26-year-old in the coming days.
But the Brewers did not make this deal with another trade lined up, which would back what league sources told the Journal Sentinel about the team’s satisfaction with its current infield options.
On its face, that may sound like a ridiculous statement – they have only four realistic options, after all.
However, if the Brewers can match Durbin’s production from a year ago – he was worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference – with the combination of Williams and Hamilton while adding two arms they like in Harrison and Drohan, then the move starts to take the shape of a very typical Milwaukee deal.
Part of that calculus banks on Durbin not taking a stride forward in Year 2, which would most likely need to come from a power standpoint as he is mostly maxed out on his bat-to-ball skills.
Hamilton, by all accounts, is not as good a hitter as Durbin. Without an external infield addition, it’s safe to categorize banking on much offense from Hamilton as a gamble, as even in his best offensive year of 2024 he outperformed most of his underlying numbers.
But Hamilton is an exceptional defender – something the Brewers clearly value – and don’t forget, too: There’s another infielder in the mix.
Perhaps the Brewers see Williams as an equal to Durbin’s production, even in Year 1. While Williams has never played third base in the pros, the Brewers could slide Ortiz back to third while moving Turang to shortstop, opening up second for Williams.
Reading between the lines of the situation, the Brewers would be more than happy to acquire another hitter to bolster their infield. That remains the target objective. But if they can’t work something out for Paredes and don’t sign one of the few remaining free agents – such as Ramón Urias – they are comfortable rolling with Williams.
How do Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan fit?
Harrison, the key piece of the return, checks a box so often seen in players the Brewers acquire: former highly regarded prospects.
Harrison joins the likes of Quinn Priester, Andrew Vaughn, DL Hall, Bryse Wilson and even Seigler of former top prospects and high draft picks who have since lost some of their luster. He topped out as the No. 26 prospect on Baseball America in 2024 while with the San Francisco Giants, who traded him to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal last summer.
So far at the big-league level, results have been mixed for the left-hander – he has a 4.39 earned run average in 42 games (37 starts), though some of his peripheral numbers such as Fielding Independent Pitching and Deserved Run Average indicate he’s been better than the results show.
Harrison’s four-seam fastball was also his bread and butter as a prospect. The pitch was expected to play up from its 94-95 mph velocity because of its flat angle and the extension he generates on the mound, and for the most part has produced solid results alongside a slurve that gets solid two-plane movement.
But an inability to find a consistent third pitch seemingly has slowed Harrison’s development at the MLB level.
Enter the sinker.
Harrison has thrown all of 13 sinkers in the majors – and it’s unclear how many of those were actually misread four-seamers – but the pitch grades out at his best by the analytical model Stuff+.
Could this be a situation in which the Brewers offer some slight tweaks to Harrison’s pitch design and mix and get similar results to Priester a year ago?
Either way, Harrison figures to get a strong look at the opening day rotation.
Shane Drohan has the look of a depth or back-end rotation starter
Drohan should not be overlooked in this deal. Considered by FanGraphs to be Boston’s No. 37 prospect, the 27-year-old left-hander has a handful of very intriguing ingredients the Brewers like to work with.
He has a true five-pitch mix headlined by a four-seamer that averaged 93.5 mph last year at Class AAA, where he struck out an impressive 35.2% of batters he faced. It’s reminiscent somewhat to Logan Henderson’s low-slot, riding fastball, though Drohan gets more vertical movement by throwing from a bit higher of an arm slot.
The fastball had a 37.7% whiff rate last year at Class AAA, which becomes even more impressive when you consider that was only fourth-best out of his five pitches.
Drohan’s slider is his nastiest offering, a firm, gyro offering that moves well in two directions and got whiffs on 43% of swings.
His curveball and changeup are also potentially big-league average pitches, and if the strides he showed in limiting walks last year were real, the Brewers may soon be telling opposing lineups they don’t mess with the Drohan.
Brewers looking to the long-term with this deal
The Brewers, perhaps more than any other team in baseball, keep an eye to the future even while aiming to remain in contention each season. That’s the case this time around, too.
While the infield situation is, even by the most generous read, in flux as the team enters camp this year, the Brewers are operating with the understanding that a strong core of prospects that can play the left side of the infield isn’t far away.
While Williams is the only one right on the cusp of MLB readiness at present, Pratt, Made, Wilken and Andrew Fischer aren’t all that far off. Just beyond them, too, is Luis Peña.
Organizationally, the Brewers are stocked as well as any in the infield. There’s a bit of a gamble – admittedly, an unconventional one for a team contending, but that’s life when you don’t play in the free agent waters – in the immediate future in banking on Williams and Hamilton to replace Durbin’s production, but this is the game the Brewers play.
For the most part, it’s worked out.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What’s next for the Brewers after the Caleb Durbin trade with Boston?
Reporting by Curt Hogg, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
