The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears will renew the long-running rivalry on Sunday at Lambeau Field in what has shaped up to be one of the most important games between the two teams in over a decade. The Packers have won three straight games and are 8-3-1, with a legitimate shot at becoming the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Bears have won five straight games and are 9-3 and in possession of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. This game has massive implications for determining the division champion and playoff seeding in the conference.
Can the Packers complete the sweep of the division over the last three weeks and go into the final four games of the season in first place in the NFC North?
Five things to watch and a prediction for the Packers’ showdown with the Bears in Week 14:
1. Facing an elite OL
The Packers defensive front has been consistently affecting games over the three-game win streak, led by Micah Parsons and his 6.0 sacks and 22 pressures. But can the Packers get the job done up front on defense against the Bears’ elite offensive line? Left guard Joe Thuney, center Drew Dalman, right guard Jonah Jackson and right tackle Darnell Wright have all played excellent football this season. All four are good in pass protection, allowing Caleb Williams to hold the ball and improvise off schedule, and they’ve also powered the Bears’ dominant run game. The question mark is at left tackle, where rookie Ozzy Trapilo looks like the starter. Parsons and the Packers must find ways of disrupting Williams in the pocket and holding gaps in the run game. This will be a big test for a defensive front that lost Devonte Wyatt to a season-ending injury but must help power this playoff push.
2. Which run game wins?
The forecast for Green Bay on Sunday calls for cold — with the temp dropping into the low teens by the afternoon — and the potential for some snow flurries. Hello, December football in Wisconsin. Can the Packers produce the better run game in winter conditions at Lambeau Field? The Bears have been dominant running the football, using the combination of a rebuilt offensive line, two talented running backs (D’Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai) and Ben Johnson’s scheme to create the NFL’s No. 2 ranked run attack. But the Packers are coming alive on the ground recently, with Sean Rhyan and Anthony Belton providing some power inside and both Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson ripping off explosive runs over the last three games. Green Bay’s defense is allowing only 3.9 yards per rush this season. The offense has produced at least 125 rushing yards in three straight games. Sunday is an opportunity to be the more physical team and prove the ability to win outdoors in the cold as the postseason nears.
3. Third down
The Packers’ No. 1 ranked third down offense will be put to the test by the Bears, who rank seventh defensively. One thing to watch: Chicago has struggled to get pressure on third down this season, while Jordan Love has been excellent throwing downfield — especially on third and fourth down — from clean pockets. The big goal for the defense on third down will be keeping Caleb Williams in the pocket, and getting him to the ground or the ball out of his hands when he is disrupted with pressure. Williams is excellent at escaping sacks and making plays with his feet, both in terms of buying time to throw or scrambling for yards. In most close games, a big play here or there on third down can make all the difference. The Packers need to keep Love protected on third down and ensure Williams doesn’t create a big play using his legs on third down.
4. Getting healthy in the passing game
Christian Watson is booming since returning to the lineup, Dontayvion Wicks is over a calf injury and both Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed could return from injuries and multi-game absences on Sunday. The Packers are getting healthy at wide receiver, and Golden and Reed could provide a big boost this week. But the Bears are also getting healthy in the secondary. Cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon returned last week in Philadelphia and helped shut down the Eagles’ struggling passing game. Even with Tyrique Stevenson likely out, the Bears are deep in the secondary, with Johnson, Gordon and Nahshon Wright at corner and Kevin Byard (leading NFL with six picks), Jaquan Brisker and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Both teams are nearing full strength, making this an important battle to watch for Sunday. The Packers need to create explosive plays via the pass.
5. Turnovers
Winning the ball — or the turnover battle — is vital every week, but it’ll be especially important on Sunday. The Bears lead the NFL in takeaways and turnover margin, and Chicago will go into Sunday with an 8-0 record when producing multiple takeaways this season. The Packers, meanwhile, have only seven giveaways, including zero in the last three weeks. Green Bay is now 7-0 when not turning the ball over this season. Football is never as simple as one factor, but protecting the ball will almost certainly be part of the winning formula for the Packers. Can the offensive line keep Jordan Love protected, and can Love avoid being over-aggressive against coordinator Dennis Allen? Also, the Packers have multiple takeaways in two of the last three games, so getting a turnover or two against the Bears could also help swing the game.
Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 20 (8-3-1)
Packers-Bears. Lambeau Field. In the cold. December football. Huge stakes. What more could anyone ask for? The Packers are 8-3-1 and entering a huge stretch for determining the playoff journey. You want to play a home game in January? Win this one. You want a bye to open the postseason? Win this one. There is no underestimating this Bears team — they are talented, well coached and improving every week. Have they been fortunate to win some close games? Absolutely. But Sunday at Lambeau Field is going to be a slugfest between two good teams with burgeoning confidence. So why will the Packers win a close one? I think there will be an opportunity for Jordan Love to consistently throw from clean pockets. I think the Packers can run on the Bears front. And I think Micah Parsons and the Packers linebackers are uniquely capable of making life difficult on Caleb Williams. Expect nothing to be easy. But that’s Packers-Bears when it’s good. And it’s finally good again.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Bears: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 14
Reporting by Zach Kruse, Packers Wire / Packers Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
