The Milwaukee Bucks will come out of the all-star break completely out of the postseason picture, sitting in 12th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 23-30. They have the same number of losses as Atlanta, the No. 10 team in the conference and holders of the final play-in spot, but remain behind Chicago (11th, 24-31) in the standings.
The Bucks possess the ninth-worst record in the 30-team league and have been objectively bad since a 6-3 start to the season. Their longest winning streak has been three games. They’ve lost three or more in a row on four different occasions.
They are 27th in the NBA in scoring offense (111.8 points per game) and 24th in offensive rating (113.1 points per 100 possessions, a metric widely recognized as a more accurate measure of offensive production).
They are the worst free throw shooting (73.7%) and offensive rebounding team (8.7 per game) in the league. They also rank in the bottom five in total shots, free throws made, free throws attempted and total rebounds.
Those numbers offset what they do well, which is make 3-pointers (No. 2, 39.2%) and make shots overall (No. 5, 48.1%).
They are 22nd in defensive rating (116.4 points allowed per 100 possessions and 14th in points allowed (115.2). They give up the eighth-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) and teams attempt more shots overall, and more 3-point shots against them.
And yet…
There is a very good chance they at least end up in the four-team play-in tournament. Finishing ninth or tenth in the East would require the Bucks to win two games to advance to the playoffs to face one of the top two seeds (currently Detroit and Boston).
Such a scenario is fully within reach of a Bucks team that wants to continue to win while the motivations of Atlanta and Chicago remain unclear.
So, understanding the Bucks will be looking to play some version of postseason basketball, here are three things to watch for in the final 29 games of the regular season:
A healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo
During all-star media availability on Feb. 15, Giannis Antetokounmpo said he felt 100% but acknowledged he had more boxes to check in being cleared to return to play from his second right calf strain suffered on Jan. 23.
He has already missed 23 full games and exited two others early due to injuries (he didn’t finish the final minute of a third game with his most recent calf strain). The last time he was healthy for an entire game was back on Nov. 15.
Milwaukee was 7-5 in the 12 games he played to that point. Though not amazing record, it was 48-win pace, which would have matched their win total from the previous season.
And in those 12 games, in which Antetokounmpo played 33.4 minutes per contest, he was superb. He shot 63% from the field and averaged 32.6 points per game. He also averaged 11.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists.
In the 16 full games he played following a left adductor strain and his first calf strain, Antetokounmpo was on a minute restriction. He played just over 28 minutes per game, and his numbers fell to 27 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists.
Unsurprisingly, the Bucks were just 7-9 in those games.
To date, the team hasn’t been good enough to win consistently without Antetokounmpo, or without him operating at full force. For the Bucks to have any hope of turning their season around over the final 29 games, he must be 100% healthy and playing at full capacity. He will likely not play every game out of the break, but there is enough evidence that when he does they are a better-than-average team.
Is Ousmane Dieng the real deal?
It’s fair to say the Bucks have not had success at drafting first-round talent since selecting Giannis Antetokounmpo No. 15 in 2013. The team has made seven first-round selections since then and none are on the team. Four are out of the league entirely and a fifth, MarJon Beauchamp, is hanging on with two-way deal in Philadelphia. A sixth, AJ Johnson, picked No. 23 in 2024, is already on his third team.
Donte DiVincenzo (No. 17, 2018) is the outlier as a solid starting player, and he is on his fifth team.
To make up for this deficit of high-end home grown talent, the Bucks have made some “buy low” moves that have brought in talent. AJ Green (undrafted in 2022), Ryan Rollins (two-way contract 2024) and Kevin Porter Jr. (traded for Beauchamp in 2025) are recent pro scouting and player development success stories.
Is Ousmane Dieng next?
The wing was a lottery pick (No. 11) in 2022 after playing one season in Australia, drafted by New York to be traded to Oklahoma City in a swap of future draft assets. His draft class included future all-NBA guard Jalen Williams and he joined a team that was nearing the completion of its rebuild. And, though not a center, Dieng was effectively drafted over the next year by Chet Holmgren as a slight, floor-spacing big and then the Thunder signed Isaiah Hartenstein for muscle. And Dieng’s other draft classmate, Jaylin Williams, proved to be the better front court complement to the skill positions on the court.
With his rookie contract ending this season – and the Thunder potentially having three more first-round picks in June – it made sense for them to move off Dieng. And there were the Bucks, desperately in need of youthful talent that can shoot the ball around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Dieng’s career 3-point mark on very low volume was just 30.6% in his three-plus seasons in Oklahoma City, but the Bucks don’t look at just the raw numbers when projecting how a player will do with them. First, they have Antetokounmpo, so nearly every shooter who comes to the Bucks has a career best 3-point season (or seasons) because of how open they are.
Then, there are mechanical and shot chart profiles they break down. They firmly believed Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis Jr. could develop into the floor spacings bigs they did, even if there was scant superficial evidence to back it up with their previous teams.
The fact that Dieng gradually improved his percentage each season (26.5% as a rookie to 36.7% this season) was appealing, but it’s clear in just a few games that he has an overall shot that could lead to consistency.
Going forward, what will be interesting to see is if Dieng can defend at a high enough level to stay on the floor. He was measured at 6 feet, 10 inches in shoes with a 7-foot wingspan at the 2022 NBA combine. So, he has plus-size as a potential disruptor on that end. But, the Bucks list him at 185 pounds, which is over 30 pounds lighter than 6-6 teammate Taurean Prince.
Can he be counted on in late game situations to help create a stop? Can he grab a rebound in traffic? These are things the Bucks need to discover down the stretch.
Will Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins figure it out?
It’s almost easy to forget that Kevin Porter Jr. has missed more games than Antetokounmpo, as the guard has played in just 28 games.
Rollins has been healthier (he has played 51 out of 53 games) but his role has fluctuated wildly through the season as he’s gone from a top reserve to a starter to the primary ball handler and scorer.
The pair have played just 26 games and 507 minutes together, and frankly their 114.2 offensive rating and 111.6 defensive rating (a plus-2.6 differential) isn’t good enough. And it doesn’t marry up with the obvious talents.
It does indicate, however, that the two are still trying to figure out how to not only run the offense, but balance their similar skill sets off one another. Neither are traditional point guards, and both are still hungry enough to establish themselves that they fall into “your turn, my turn” moments in shot taking.
Sometimes, those shots go in, but the processes in getting to them are flawed and ultimately bogs down the offense in general.
Whether or not Rollins or Porter are moved to a reserve role once the team is at full strength almost doesn’t matter, because it’s likely they will be on the court together to finish games. So, down the stretch of the season, where they have an opportunity to play more games together than they had the previous 53, will they find more cohesion with one another and their teammates to make the Bucks as dangerous as they truly can be? The answer to that will go a long way in determining how successful the end of the season in Milwaukee is.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: 3 things to watch for as the Bucks return from the NBA all-star break
Reporting by Jim Owczarski, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
