It was a far better February for Cincinnati Bearcats men’s basketball than January, as UC just finished the past month 5-2. After starting 2026 at 3-6, head coach Wes Miller’s team has rebounded with five wins in its last six games, which has at least put them back into the postseason conversation.
At 16-13, they are one win away from equalling last year’s regular-season win mark and they’ve already surpassed the number of Big 12 wins that they had in their first two years in the league by winning their eighth league contest Saturday, Feb. 28, vs. Oklahoma State.
Remaining are Tuesday’s Senior Night tip with No. 19/No. 23 BYU and a road game Saturday, March 7 at TCU. Both are Quad 1 win opportunities. If successful, that would give the Bearcats four Q1 wins in 14 tries this season, which would boost their NCAA NET and KenPom.com rankings.
UC as of Sunday, March 1, was No. 44 in KenPom.com and No. 48 in NCAA. NET, meaning they’re currently among the top 68 teams, but automatic bids for league tournaments and multi-bid leagues could affect where they land, if it all.
Wins Above Bubble
Where the “Moneyball” movie made the statistic Wins Above Replacement in baseball, basketball is now relying on a computation called WAB (Wins Above Bubble). It will be used by the selection committee and it measures how many wins you had against your schedule compared to how many wins an average “bubble” team would have had against that same schedule.
UC’s predicament at the moment is their WAB rating is -1.56. The first 50 schools all have positive ratings. Schools beyond that have negative numbers, like UC at No. 66. A negative number indicates there were games they should have won that went in the other direction. For example, most UC fans would like to have the two West Virginia games back as well as the damaging Nov. 26 loss to Eastern Michigan.
What bracketologists says about Cincinnati Bearcats
Late Saturday night, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the UC Bearcats among the “next four out” meaning they were in the No. 73-76 category out of 68.
CBS Sports bracketology was not that forgiving, as the Bearcats were missing from their tallies.
On3 bracketology has the Bearcats among the first four out with TCU, VCU and San Diego State. If that were to hold up, UC could be heading to the Crown tournament in Las Vegas again as the Big 12, along with the Big East and Big Ten, are contractually obligated to send two teams. If On3’s prognostications are correct, those teams would be UC and TCU, who meet March 7 to end the season in Fort Worth.
Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports used to be a Cincinnati Bearcats beat writer for The Cincinnati Enquirer, but he does not have Wes Miller’s men in “The Dance” as of Feb. 28. The Big 12 team he mentions as “next four out” is West Virginia.
TeamRankings.com projects UC with a 17-14 record and doesn’t have them in the field of 68, giving them just a 21% chance of an at-large bid. The same group gives Dayton a 22% chance and the Miami RedHawks a 33% chance.
Statistician Bart Torvik has UC’s Bearcats as one of the “first four out.” Torvik also projects UC at 17-14 with a 21.9% chance of an at-large bid.
Blogging The Bracket has UC as the “next four out” with New Mexico, VCU and Seton Hall. Their tabulations would have the Big 12 with eight teams in the NCAA tournament.
Phillips 66 Big 12 tournament
Even with two wins to end the season 18-13 (10-8 Big 12) UC would likely have to get a minimum of one win in the conference tournament. West Virginia missed an NCAA bid last season despite winning 10 games in the league. The Governor of West Virginia then had harsh words for the NCAA and stood at a lectern that read “National Corrupt Athletic Association.” West Virginia had 20 opportunities for the 10 wins, where this season the Big 12 schedule was cut to 18 games.
Based on current standings, UC would play on the opening day of the tournament, March 10 when seeds 9-16 play. A pair of wins this week could move them to day two as a No. 5-8 seed.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Where do UC Bearcats stand in the NCAA Tournament projections?
Reporting by Scott Springer, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
