Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes and will throughout the 2025 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you’ve followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN “Matchup Predictor” says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule on a weekly basis. The ESPN computers always adjusts things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
The Buckeyes scored a bushel of points and gave up none on Saturday against Grambling State, so you would think that things are even more favorable than what we saw upon the initial release of these projected percentage chances of winning each game on the regular-season schedule. Did things stay the same with Ohio State’s chances of running the rest of the schedule after ESPN’s metrics were wrong about the Longhorns winning? Which way did things move with Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon?
Here’s what ESPN’s “Matchup Predictor” says about Ohio State and its chances of winning the remainder of every game left on the regular season schedule in 2025. We include games already played and the results, which in this case are just the first couple of weeks of the season.
First up … Games Completed
Aug. 30 vs. Texas Longhorns
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Texas (53.3%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 14-7
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2
Actual Record | 1-0
Sept. 6 vs. Grambling State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change)
Actual result | Ohio State won 77-0
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 2-0
Next … Games still to be played
Sept. 13 vs. Ohio
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 95.4% (up from 95.3%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 7-0
Projected running record | 3-0
Sept. 27 at Washington
Location | Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 76.5% (down from 77.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-3
Projected running record | 4-0
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 91.6% (down from 91.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-7
Projected running record | 5-0
Nov. 11 at Illinois
Location | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 74.3% (down from 81.6%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4
Projected running record | 6-0
Oct. 18 at Wisconsin
Location | Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 83.6% (up from 81.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 63-18-5
Projected running record | 7-0
Nov. 1 vs. Penn State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 64.6% (up from 61.1%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 26-14
Projected running record | 8-0
Nov. 8 at Purdue
Location | Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.9% (up from 94.0%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 43-15-2
Projected running record | 9-0
Nov. 15 vs. UCLA
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 97.3% (up from 97.2%)
All-time series | Series tied 4-4-1
Projected running record | 10-0
Nov. 22 vs. Rutgers
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.4% (down from 90.3%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Projected running record | 11-0
Nov. 29 at Michigan
Location | Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 77.9% (up from 70.7%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 12-0
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State football updated game-by-game ESPN predictions after Grambling State win
Reporting by Phil Harrison, Buckeyes Wire / Buckeyes Wire
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