Jan. 31, 2020.
That’s the last time Iowa wrestling defeated Penn State. The Nittany Lions are winners of four-straight duals in this ever-growing rivalry and have secured the last four NCAA team titles as well, further establishing themselves as the nation’s premier program. Iowa is striving to get back to that spot, with its last NCAA title coming in 2021.
The two teams meet again on Friday, Jan. 16 in Iowa City.
If the Hawkeyes have any chance to upend the dynasty in State College in the years to come, a solid showing here is a must. With the sudden departure of Massoma Endene, it went from being a difficult task to a Herculean one.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at each matchup on deck for Friday’s Iowa vs. Penn State dual, with a prediction to follow.
Iowa wrestlers listed first, with Penn State’s probables based upon its previous dual. Rankings from Intermat.
125 pounds – No. 6 Dean Peterson vs. No. 2 Luke Lilledahl
This is one of a few potential matches in this dual we have seen previously, as Peterson and Lilledahl faced off last season. Peterson, then at Rutgers, earned a 4-1 win by decision over the U20 World Champion and last year’s 125 third-place finisher at NCAAs.
Lilledahl’s speed is what separates him from most. In last season’s bout, Peterson’s positioning and hand fighting slowed down the Nittany Lion to allow him to score the match-winning takedown late in the third period. For as much as Lilledahl’s speed is talked about, Peterson is no slowpoke himself. This match could bring some really intense scrambles and offense if the two get to rolling, but it will be interesting to see if Peterson takes on the same strategy of limiting Lilledahl’s attacks and waiting patiently for his opportunity to strike.
If Iowa wants to have any chance in this dual, this feels like a must-win given that this will be the biggest toss-up of the night.
Projection: 50/50 toss-up
133 pounds – No. 8 Drake Ayala vs. No. 4 Marcus Blaze
The two-time NCAA finalist veteran Ayala vs. the young, budding superstar Blaze, this is another one Iowa needs to have.
Ayala is an uncharacteristic 4-4 on the year, with losses against No. 1 Lucas Byrd, No. 2 Ben Davino, No. 3 Evan Frost and Wisconsin’s Zan Fugitt, an NCAA semifinalist from last season. Blaze, a U17 and U20 World champion, is next in line for Ayala in the gauntlet he’s been facing.
With Blaze off to an 11-0 start and Ayala still seeking to find his footing, this bout is an unusual place to be, but it’s hard to say anything other than Blaze is the favorite. A hostile Carver-Hawkeye Arena won’t be an easy place to handle nerves as a true freshman, so Ayala could have an advantage in that respect.
Ayala will need to set the tone early. Getting the crowd into it from the first whistle could help tremendously. Beyond that, Ayala’s best wrestling comes from when he gets out and is attacking the single legs early, not waiting to strike until late in a match.
While Iowa wrestling coach Tom Brands wasn’t directly addressing Ayala, his words in Tuesday’s press conference ring true ahead of this bout.
“When it’s your time to step on the mat, know what you’re up against and go do what you’re capable of doing,” Brands said. “That isn’t waiting to see. That’s not seeing which way the wind is blowing. Go do what you were born to do.”
Projection: 60/40 lean to Blaze
141 pounds – No. 11 Nasir Bailey OR Kale Petersen vs. No. 7 Braeden Davis
Another must-have for the Hawkeyes, as 141 pounds carries a ton of unknowns.
Bailey hasn’t run away with the job at the weight for Iowa like many thought he would. At 9-5 and medically forfeiting out of the Soldier Salute, it’s left the door open for Kale Peterson, who’s now 16-1 on the year.
Penn State began the year with Aaron Nagao as the starter, but injuries have since derailed that. Braeden Davis competed in his first attached event last week vs. Rutgers, meaning he is burning a year of eligibility and looks poised to be the starter at 141. He took fifth at NCAAs last year at 133 pounds and ranked as high as No. 1 at 125 two years ago. With just five matches wrestled so far and none of his wins coming against ranked opponents at his new weight, it’s hard to get a pulse on where he is currently.
Davis presents a tough challenge given his pedigree and previous results, but he is not unbeatable. Bailey’s past shows that he’s capable of getting a signature win here to recapture control of the starting job if he can find his groove, or Petersen could make a huge statement.
Whatever happens here will give a lot of context moving forward, but until then, it’s not easy to predict.
Projection: 50/50 toss-up
149 pounds – No. 17 Ryder Block vs. No. 1 Shayne Van Ness
Block took a tumble from the top 10 to No. 17 at 149 following a loss to Wisconsin’s Joseph Zargo, where Block looked out of gas come the third period.
The Hawkeye being ready to go for all seven minutes will be key, as Van Ness showed last year by pouring on the points against Kyle Parco in 17-6 and 13-0 major decisions. Van Ness has shown a knack for getting tilts on his way to falls (seven last year, four this season) or for major decisions and technical falls.
Block is tough on his own from the top, with long, physical rides helping him wear down his opponent. If he can get a long ride in this bout and keep it to a one-takedown match, he has the offensive ability to go get one and win a narrow battle. Even so, Van Ness is a favorite.
Projection: 70/30 lean to Van Ness
157 pounds – No. 12 Jordan Williams OR Victor Voinovich III vs. No. 3 PJ Duke
Duke is another one of Penn State’s incredibly-talented freshman, arguably their best. He’s not only a two-time U20 World champion, but also made the 2025 US Senior World team by defeating four-time NCAA champion Yianni Diakomihalis of Cornell in the process.
Given Williams’ win over Wisconsin’s Luke Mechler and placing ahead of Voinovich at the Soldier Salute, he seems poised to start. Voinovich could get a look, though, because of his tough leg defense. However, Williams’ nickname “Iceman” in high school came from winning dramatically. His dynamic offense can keep him in a position to do that, but against already one of the nation’s best wrestlers, it feels like a task too tough for Iowa’s 157-pounders.
Projection: 70/30 lean to Duke
165 pounds – No. 3 Michael Caliendo vs. No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink
A 2025 NCAA finals rematch, this is probably the premier matchup in the dual.
Mesenbrink has had Caliendo’s number, 6-0 all-time vs. the Hawkeye with three bonus-point victories. Where Caliendo thrives with his relentless attacks and pace, Mesenbrink does too. It makes for a difficult match-up for Caliendo, but he narrowed the gap in the postseason last year with two competitive losses by decision.
“There’s really nothing you can do other than stay in the center and wrestle,” Caliendo said in October. “You just got to be tough, he’s going to hand-fight you hard and try to push the pace on you. I got the cardio and the pace, it doesn’t really matter to me. It’s just about wrestling.”
Caliendo told the Des Moines Register at preseason media day that this matchup is what he has been preparing for all offseason. This will be a showing of how much closer he has gotten or how much Mesenbrink has grown since last March.
Projection: 65/35 lean to Mesenbrink
174 pounds – No. 3 Patrick Kennedy OR Gabe Arnold vs. No. 1 Levi Haines
The potential matchup between Haines and Kennedy is similar to what Mesenbrink and Caliendo have. Kennedy faced Haines three times last season, losing twice by decision and once by major decision. Haines has only grown since then, winning a U23 World title and taking silver in the Senior World Championships.
At 9-1, Kennedy has been off to a solid season outside of his loss to Iowa State’s MJ Gaitan, where the Cyclones pulled a major upset. Kennedy has been close to Haines, but until proven otherwise, this is Haines’ bout to lose, no matter who we see at 174.
Projection: 70/30 lean to Haines
184 pounds – No. 1 Angelo Ferrari vs. No. 4 Rocco Welsh
Ferrari showed off his talents in this dual last season, keeping up with five-time NCAA champion Carter Starocci in a 2-1 loss by decision. This time around, he hopes to add more.
“There’s a fire in me this time to go out there and put up some points and get some takedowns,” Ferrari said.
Against 2024 NCAA finalist Rocco Welsh, Ferrari will have his hands full. Welsh, an Ohio State transfer, did not compete attached in the 2024-25 season. In his first year in State College, he is 10-0 with a 70% bonus rate.
Ferrari has yet to give up a takedown in his college career, which makes it difficult to pick against him, considering the great start to his redshirt freshman season. Regardless, this will be one of his biggest tests yet.
Projection: 60/40 lean to Ferrari
197 pounds – Harvey Ludington OR Brody Sampson vs. No. 1 Josh Barr
Without Endene, 197 pounds is without a standout option at the weight, leaving this in a big state of flux. Considering the news of Endene’s departure comes as the team is set to face a returning NCAA finalist, this is far from ideal.
Brands said the decision on what to do at 197 from here on out will be “week-to-week”, so don’t take too many conclusions out of this match in that regard.
Regardless of who gets the start between Sampson, Ludington or perhaps Arnold (started two duals at 197) or perhaps a surprise weight shift that may come to throw things for a loop, they will likely be heavily overmatched against a former NCAA finalist.
Projection: 90/10 lean to Barr
285 pounds – No. 5 Ben Kueter vs. No. 13 Cole Mirasola
This is a must-win for Iowa and Kueter as he looks to get wins to set himself up for a good seeding come March. At just 2-1 after seeing limited time this season after offseason hip surgery, getting more tallys in the win column is crucial.
Cole Mirasola is a talented young freshman for Penn State and was a three-time Wisconsin state champion in high school. Similar to when Kueter began his career, Mirasola is still building himself up as a slimmer, more modern style heavyweight.
Mirasola has had a fine start to his career, but hasn’t earned a win to show he can keep up with the likes of Kueter just yet. His best victory came against No. 17 Brady Colbert of Army, with losses to No. 12 Christian Carroll and No. 6 Nathan Taylor in his toughest matchups to date.
Even so, since Kueter hasn’t been on the mat a ton this season, this is not a slam-dunk win for Iowa.
Projection: 65/35 lean to Kueter
Dual prediction for Iowa wrestling vs. Penn State
This was always going to be tough for Iowa, but adding in the high potential of giving up bonus points at 197, an upset became far more unlikely.
Iowa has great opportunities available across the dual. Peterson has a chance to solidify his start and add another win over one of the best 125-pounders in the nation. Ayala has the tools and home support needed to get back on track and upend a young superstar. Whoever goes at 141 will have a chance to seize momentum against a weight class in flux for Penn State. Caliendo and Kennedy are seeking retribution for their losses last season, while Ferrari and Kueter are the two places where Iowa enters as a favorite.
That’s a lot of chances laid out above, but nothing concrete. Given Penn State’s elite talent at all 10 weights, the Nittany Lions are poised to make this five straight dual wins over Iowa.
Prediction: Penn State 25, Iowa 9. Penn State wins seven of 10 with three wins in bonus-point fashion.
Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.
This article originally appeared on Hawk Central: Match-by-match preview, prediction of Iowa wrestling vs. Penn State
Reporting by Eli McKown, Des Moines Register / Hawk Central
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