Despite a tumultuous dual campaign, the only part of the season that truly matters has arrived with the Big Ten Championships and postseason for Iowa wrestling.
The Hawkeyes have their postseason lineup set and are ready to fly to State College, Pennsylvania, for the conference tournament and postseason qualifier. Teams will compete from March 7-8 on the campus of Penn State University, seeking individual and team Big Ten titles.
Given the roller coaster of a season Iowa has had, there’s much to be learned and gained in the postseason.
Here are three things to monitor for the Hawkeyes during this weekend’s action.
Iowa wrestling will need to steal some auto-qualification bids
Seeding is subject to change until March 6 during the pre-tournament coaches’ meeting. Given the criticism from all corners of the wrestling world on the seeding process, it seems likely there could be some seed shifting.
The conference used a new system this year, an algorithm from the “Wrestlestat Tournament Seeder Program.” According to the Big Ten Network pre-seed release show, this took head-to-head results vs. the field, common opponents’ record, conference dual record, “quality matches”, RPI, the coaches’ rankings and conference allocations to create a point value and later the seeds. Ultimately, it produced some eye-catching results, like Nebraska’s Christopher Minto being seeded over Penn State’s Levi Haines at 174 pounds despite having four losses to Haines’ zero and a head-to-head loss to the Nittany Lion.
Coaches can challenge seeding on Friday, so long as they are within 15 points of the wrestler they are challenging for a seed. Iowa coach Tom Brands said criticism of the system is warranted, but added context that this was something Big Ten coaches voted and adopted. According to Brands, the vote was 12 yes, one abstention, and one no. While the seeding process was only locked in for one season, it seems this experiment didn’t go as planned.
“Hey, we got what we wanted,” Brands said. “Everybody wanted to try it and here we are.”
Here’s a look at where Iowa stands as of March 4, with its seeding and where it’ll need to place to automatically qualify for the NCAA Championships. Wrestlers in bold are currently not seeded in a position to secure an auto-bid.
In total, seven wrestlers are seeded in position to automatically qualify for nationals. Voinovich, Arnold and Kueter would all need to place above their seeding to avoid relying on an at-large bid. A handful of wrestlers like Peterson, Block and Ferrari are all worth monitoring since they are on the fringe of the cut-off line.
Iowa will have good cases for at-large bids in some places, but injuries, competing at new weights and other circumstances will make securing auto-bids huge to avoid having someone miss out on the NCAA Championships.
How ready to go are wrestlers with extended absences, new weights?
Bailey, Ferrari, Arnold and Kueter all come into this tournament with question marks, for either extended absences in the lineup or Arnold making the bump up to 197.
Bailey’s been out since the Minnesota dual on Jan. 30, where he took extensive injury time. However, he exuded a lot of confidence about the shape and conditioning he’s gained in his time away from competition.
“Nothing really changed for me,” Bailey said. “I’ve been training, staying on the mat, getting in better shape, better conditioning. Might be a little bit better than I was before.”
Fans haven’t seen Ferrari since Jan. 16 against Penn State. Brands said the medical team was working with Ferrari, but hasn’t shed much light beyond that. As the No. 8 seed, he’ll be challenged right away against some quality competition. That should give some insight into Ferrari’s health status.
As for Kueter, he’s 5-5 on the year and hasn’t competed since the Michigan dual on Feb. 13, when he suffered a major decision loss to Taye Ghadiali. After the Purdue dual, Brands said they were “being smart” by holding out Kueter in the dual. Kueter did not wrestle in the Oklahoma State dual either. He was, however, at least listed as an option by Iowa following weigh-ins for both Purdue and Oklahoma State duals. Kueter’s been held out in spots throughout the season after having offseason hip surgery.
With top-10 wins over Minnesota’s Koy Hopke and Wisconsin’s Braxton Amos, Kueter is still on the fringe NCAA All-American tier he was last year, with an eighth-place finish. But hasn’t shown the ability to crack into the upper half of the podium yet. In what is the nation’s elite heavyweight conference, he’ll have a chance to come out rested and prove otherwise.
Lastly, we’ve only seen Arnold wrestle at 197 pounds twice. He was 2-0 vs. unrakned opponents from UT Chattanooga and Utah Valley. At that time, he was actually descending to 174 pounds, but the void following Massoma Endene’s departure dictated his ascent to 197. At 5-foot-7, wrestling at 197 won’t be an easy task, but teammates have expressed confidence.
“If he wrestles the way you should, and he makes guys wrestle him, I feel really good about Gabe Arnold. Always have,” 174-pounder Patrick Kennedy said.
Drake Ayala has a chance to rebound
The big class to watch at the Big Ten Championships will be 133 pounds. Five of the top 10 wrestlers in the nation are at the conference tournament.
At 9-7, Ayala hasn’t been at his best this season. His marquee win came over No. 10 Jacob Van Dee of Nebraska, but he currently has losses against all top-five ranked wrestlers in the nation, three of which came against wrestlers he could see at this tournament — No. 1 Lucas Byrd of Illinois, No. 2 Marcus Blaze of Penn State and No. 3 Ben Davino of Ohio State.
If Ayala is going to return to his two-time NCAA finalist form, this is the perfect stage to do it on.
Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.
This article originally appeared on Hawk Central: Iowa wrestling things to watch at the Big Ten Championships
Reporting by Eli McKown, Des Moines Register / Hawk Central
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
