Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to become a hurricane late Friday, Oct. 10 or Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Jerry is forecast to pass near or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today (Oct. 9) and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the area and tropical storm watches and a warning are in effect.
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A dip in the jet stream is expected to turn Jerry to the north and then curve it out to sea, keeping it away from Florida and the U.S., according to AccuWeather.
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How strong will Jerry get? Earlier Oct. 9, the National Hurricane Center said some models show Jerry strengthening into a major hurricane while others predicted little change in intensity over the next several days.
By 11 a.m., projections show Jerry topping out as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
A major hurricane is one that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Jerry is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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See map of watches, warnings issued for Florida
No tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Jerry have been issued for Florida or the U.S.
How strong is Tropical Storm Jerry and where is it going?
At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 59.1 West.
Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected late today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday, Oct. 10, or Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. While Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to become a hurricane, the storm is forecast to curve north and then east, staying away from Florida and the U.S. east coast.
Watches, warnings associated with Tropical Storm Jerry
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
A tropical storm warning is issued when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in 36 hours or less. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding.
A tropical storm watch is issued when a tropical cyclone containing winds of 39 to 73 mph or higher poses a possible threat, generally within 48 hours. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding, according to the National Weather Service.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Jerry
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Jerry get?
What impacts could Tropical Storm Jerry have and what areas could be affected?
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Barbuda later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday.
Rainfall: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.
Surf: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Jerry strengthens. Will it become major hurricane? Palm Beach County impacts?
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
