Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing with visible confidence.
Lawrence’s confidence was never necessarily called into question. Still, his inconsistent play through the first half of the season left observers questioning who the fifth-year starter really was as a QB.
Through the first eight weeks (seven games) of the season, Lawrence ranked 29th in the NFL with a success rate of 43.8%, according to rbsdm.com.
The analytics website defines success rate as a measure of how often a play is “successful” in keeping the offense on schedule for a first down or touchdown, considering the down and distance.
For example, for a play to be marked as “successful,” a player or team must get at least 40% of the required yards on first down, and at least 60% of the yards on second down. On third or fourth down, a player or team would need a first down or a touchdown to be given credit for a successful play.
A QB keeping the offense in manageable situations will have a high “success rate.”
Since the team’s bye week, Lawrence has dramatically risen in his level of play, keeping the team in manageable situations and allowing them to keep drives alive with either the run or pass game. His success rate from Weeks 8-14 is 52%, ranking fourth in the league through that span.
The team’s overall passing offense went from 23rd in the league with an EPA (Expected Points Added) of .012 through the first seven weeks to 16th from Weeks 8-14 at .034.
Lawrence isn’t lighting up the scoreboards, but he’s putting the team in better positions to be successful, and that comes from his evolved understanding of the team’s offense throughout the season.
“It’s even the little things with making certain calls up front, or the way he’s bringing shifts and motions and timing some of those things up,” Jaguars offensive coordinator Grant Udinski said about Lawrence’s growth on Thursday.
“The details of those things are so minute that people may not notice from an outsider [perspective], but they make a big difference to the players that he’s playing with and to us as coaches, to the scheme and the system, and little angles being lined up and being executed properly.”
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen’s offense is expansive. There are multiple play calls for any given play that Lawrence has the liberty to check or “can” a given play into a new one. That makes it much more complicated than some other systems around the league.
Jaguars center Robert Hainsey described the offense as being “like a spider web.”
“There’s like 100 variables every play depending on what we’re doing and what they’re doing and all the things that can change,” Hainsey said in the locker room on Wednesday.
“Like, you can start at one spot, and then it webs out into 16 different possibilities for that one play. And that’s 70 plays a game. So there’s just so much processing mentally that you have to do so fast.”]
Hainsey has worked with Lawrence since the veteran center signed with Jacksonville as a free agent in March. He’s already seen plenty of growth.
“I think he’s taken steps every single day just to grow in the offense as a commander of the offense and [the offense] becoming his, not just the coach’s. His [comfort level], his confidence when it just comes to knowing what to do and how to get it done,” Hainsey said when asked about Lawrence.
Liam Coen told Trevor Lawrence to ‘let it rip’
Ahead of the team’s Week 11 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, Coen spoke with Lawrence about playing free after several weeks of seeing a seemingly more timid Lawrence throwing the football.
“We want to turn it over on defense and we want to keep it on offense, but we can’t be thinking about that or trying to play to not make a mistake at all,” Coen explained of his conversation with Lawrence that week.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Lawrence had thrown just seven interceptions, but only 11 touchdowns. He was protecting the ball, but also wasn’t taking any risks to make big plays.
Over the last four weeks of the season, Lawrence has thrown four interceptions, but has also completed eight touchdowns.
Against the Arizona Cardinals in particular, Lawrence wasn’t necessarily reckless with the ball, but he wasn’t afraid to try to make a play. He threw three picks and three touchdowns.
Last week against the Indianapolis Colts, Lawrence completed 17 of 30 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns. The game is widely thought of as Lawrence’s best this year, thanks to a few explosive passes and an overall efficiently-led game against Indy.
His 26-yard completion to receiver Tim Patrick has received a lot of attention, something Coen described this week as “just two guys making a play.”
Coen explained Lawrence’s growth starts in practice.
“He threw it well in practice. I know practice doesn’t always carry over for whatever reason. You try not to overanalyze it that much, but when we were soaking the ball up pretty good on Thursday, he was spinning it really good, and he has been, he has been throwing [well], I think, for especially the last four weeks,” said Coen.
Nothing has changed about what the team has done with Lawrence, but his comfort level within the offense has certainly increased as he figures out how to master every game plan.
Trevor Lawrence playing with confidence, mastering the offense
During the lead-up to the regular season, Lawrence spoke extensively about mastering Liam Coen’s offense. Additionally, he was tasked with adjusting his footwork.
He’s steadily checked off the latter and feels as confident as ever with the former. Through the first half of the season, Jacksonville was one of the worst teams when it came to pre-snap, operational penalties. Now, those seem to be a thing of the past.
“As far as going into the game with an understanding and knowledge of just what my job is, what I’m able to get to, different checks, what I’m responsible for, what plays I need to get out of if it’s certain look, I understand that really well and I feel I have mastered that by game day,” Lawrence said on Wednesday.
Lawrence explained that, of course, nothing is always perfect, but he’s getting far more comfortable on a week-to-week basis.
“So, there’s definitely things to learn from, but I feel really confident and comfortable in my knowledge of what I’m doing when I get out there on Sunday and our game plan,” he explained.
Lawrence can feel his confidence growing. But, not just his, the entire offense’s confidence has gone up.
“I think it reflects the way we’ve played, the way I’ve played, especially the last few weeks as an offense. We’ve played a lot better. And I think that’s showing just everybody getting more comfortable, more confident,” Lawrence explained.
“Our group coming together more and more, it takes some time, especially on offense sometimes to really get that rhythm and continuity between the whole group.”
Udinski believes that Lawrence has sped up the process and has gotten comfortable with the offense’s operation.
“There’s a lot that we put on guys, and it is foreign to everybody. It’s not just foreign for the quarterback. It’s different for the wide receivers. The way we call formations, the way we change plays, the way we have multiple plays in the huddles, or the way we call different plays at the line of scrimmage and check in and out of things, so it was different for everybody,” Udinski explained.
Essentially, everything has slowed down for Lawrence and the rest of the team’s offense. Their confidence goes with the QB, too, especially on offense.
Brian Thomas Jr. has seen Lawrence up close. His improvement starts in preparation, he said.
“Really, I would say it’s just the preparation, going to practice. Just seeing how practice goes. But, I feel confident in him always. But, you can tell when he’s just in that moment, in that mode during the game and everything’s just clicking,” Thomas said in the locker room Wednesday.
Thomas said Lawrence is one of the hardest workers in the building, always getting extra lifts in, always getting extra workouts in.
“I think it was maybe like Friday, I saw him out there like 20, 30 minutes after practice, just going over the plays, third down red zone, just doing little things to help him stay on top of his game,” said Thomas.
Demetrius Harvey is the Jacksonville Jaguars reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @Demetrius82 or on Bluesky @ Demetrius.
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Trevor Lawrence confident, becoming a master in Jaguars offense
Reporting by Demetrius Harvey, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union / Florida Times-Union
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