According to DraftKings, the Miami Dolphins’ over/under win/loss projection for 2026 is 4.5 wins.
This is an incredibly staggering number.
According to oddsmakers, the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals are projected to be the worst teams in the NFL in 2026.
Does this make sense?
Well, oddsmakers know Miami has moved on from Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb.
Oddsmakers know Miami is expected to move on from Tua Tagovailoa.
Oddsmakers know the core of Miami’s future is essentially: Patrick Paul, De’Von Achane, Aaron Brewer and Jordyn Brooks.
But Achane, Brewer and Brooks are all due contract extensions.
Surely Miami will listen on any trade offers for Minkah Fitzpatrick.
You’d think first-year general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan will listen to offers for Jaylen Waddle and also Achane.
This is a complete and total reset, not too dissimilar from the position the Dolphins took in 2019.
And everyone knows it.
And, by the way, the Dolphins will have one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL, based on opponent win percentage in 2025.
Miami Dolphins schedule to result in 4-13 record?
The Dolphins are fortunate an overwhelming majority of Dolphins fans support the tear down. They are savvy and on-board with what a fresh start could mean starting in 2027.
March for Arch (Manning)?
Well, yeah, of course a Top 5 draft pick could mean the next franchise quarterback.
DraftKings sees it happening.
DraftKings sees the Dolphins landing a quarterback like Arch Manning (Texas), Julian Sayin (Ohio State) or Dante Moore (Oregon).
Jets to win more than Dolphins in 2026?
It is stunning to see DraftKings project the pathetic New York Jets at 5.5 wins, more than the Dolphins. But this is the reality Miami supporters must accept.
In 2019, under first-year coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins exceeded expectations and finished 5-11, landing the 5th overall pick.
It’s important that Miami not sign a Ryan Fitzpatrick-type veteran who could lead Miami into six-to-eight win territory.
If free agent quarterback Malik Willis is not the long-term solution, the Dolphins seem likely to roll with Quinn Ewers, and justifiably so.
It’s been 19 years since Miami won four or fewer games.
Cam Cameron was 1-15 and one-and-done.
That will not be the fate for Sullivan and first-year coach Jeff Hafley.
At 5-12, 4-13, 3-14 or 2-15 in 2026, Sully and Haf will be back in 2027.
The goal should not be the playoffs, but on establishing a culture where young players display toughness, discipline and effort.
That’s the realistic goal for 2026.
Joe Schad is a journalist covering the Miami Dolphins and the NFL at The Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at jschad@pbpost.com and follow him on Instagram and on X @schadjoe. Sign up for Joe’s free weekly Dolphins Pulse Newsletter. Help support our work by subscribing today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Dolphins to win only 4 or 5 games, DraftKings projects
Reporting by Joe Schad, Palm Beach Post / Palm Beach Post
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