The chances that the Atlantic’s 10th named storm, Jerry, could form over the next few days increased again slightly on Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest tropical weather outlook.
A broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic that the NHC has named Invest 95L is now forecast to become a tropical depression on Tuesday, Oct. 7. AccuWeather forecasters predict that it will become a tropical storm soon after.
“The tropical wave moving through the Atlantic main development region is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Jerry by midweek,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Invest 95L spaghetti models show the system’s path following Hurricanes Erin and Humberto. A track westward into the Caribbean Sea isn’t entirely out of the question, but forecasters say it is the “least likely” scenario.
“Beyond the Caribbean, a dip in the jet stream along the east coast of the United States is expected to help guide this storm to the north and then curve it out to sea,” DaSilva said. Future Jerry is expected to strengthen into the basin’s fifth hurricane of the season in the process.
Invest 95L stormtracker
The National Hurricane Center upped the chances that a broad area of low pressure over the tropical central Atlantic as Invest 95L, and predicts that it will form a tropical depression later on Tuesday.
The system is becoming better organized, according to the NHC, who says environmental conditions will be right for slow development. It is moving quickly west-northwestward.
Steering winds are forecast to guide Invest 95L west-northwest and then northwest, making a close pass by Leeward Islands toward the end of the week, according to AccuWeather.
Invest 95L spaghetti models show the system likely following the same path as Hurricanes Erin and Humberto, which would lead the storm northward and away from the U.S.
Is Invest 95L coming to Florida?
As of right now, there is little indication that Invest 95L is headed toward Florida.
Spaghetti models for Invest 95L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Invest 95L
Will Invest 95L become Tropical Storm Jerry?
“Tropical storm number 10 of the Atlantic season appears to be mere days or hours away from forming, say AccuWeather hurricane experts, and it has a good chance of impacting land later this week,” according to AccuWeather.
“It is becoming likely that this will organize into a tropical storm this week,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
New tropical system crops up in the Caribbean, Gulf
The National Hurricane Center began monitoring a second tropical system that appeared in the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf on Monday afternoon.
The trough of low pressure is located over the Yucatan Peninsula where it’s producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC expects it to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later on Tuesday.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.
The budding system has just a 10% chance of forming over the next seven days.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Invest 95L to form tropical depression later Tuesday. Is it coming to Florida?
Reporting by Brandon Girod, Pensacola News Journal / Pensacola News Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
