The Miami Dolphins made a shocking move this offseason, replacing former first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa with former third-round selection Malik Willis as the team’s starting quarterback.
Willis’ career through four seasons has been a mixed bag. After struggling with the Tennessee Titans (completing 53% of passes for 350 yards and three interceptions) in his first two years, he was much better with the Green Bay Packers (completing 78.7% of passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns) over the last two years.
Heading into 2026, his first season as the presumptive starter, there are mixed expectations for Willis. However, Sports Illustrated’s Connor Orr recently predicted that Willis will outperform Denver Broncos quarterback and former first-round pick Bo Nix in EPA.
“The stat, which essentially measures quarterback efficiency on a down-to-down basis, will favor the type of athletic small ball the Dolphins will try to play with their bridge quarterback in 2026, while the big-game hunting Nix will be taking more shots at new target (and former Dolphin) Jaylen Waddle,” Orr wrote.
Over the last two seasons, Willis generated a +0.38 EPA per dropback with the Packers, which is the most in the NFL for any quarterback with at least 100 dropbacks (via Next Gen Stats).
Nix had a +.09 EPA per dropback in 2025, but with Waddle in the fold, he should be more efficient this year.
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This article originally appeared on Dolphins Wire: Analyst predicts Malik Willis will outperform former first-round pick
Reporting by Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire / Dolphins Wire
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By Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire | USA TODAY Network
