The Miami Dolphins lost in 2024 when they took a road trip to play the Indianapolis Colts and they’re underdogs in the 2025 rematch at Lucas Oil Stadium. But should they be?
With oddsmakers setting the Dolphins as 1.5-point underdogs against the Colts, the game is essentially a pick ’em on the moneyline. Can the Dolphins win outright or keep it close enough to get the win for bettors?
Here are three reasons the right play is to take the Dolphins on Sunday:
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mike McDaniel doesn’t lose season openers
The Dolphins are 3-0 under McDaniel in Week 1 games. The Colts, on the other hand, are 0-2 in season openers during Shane Steichen’s tenure as head coach and the team hasn’t started 1-0 since way back in 2013 when Andrew Luck was in his second NFL season.
It’s a new year with new rosters, but that also means relatively healthy squads on both sides. While Miami will likely be without Darren Waller and won’t have Jaylen Wright, the majority of the team’s most important players will be in action.
Tua Tagovailoa is in the lineup
When Miami lost by six points in Indianapolis last year, the Colts needed a second half comeback to come out on top in a game where the Dolphins out-gained them 337 yards to 284.
The issue for the Dolphins in that loss is that their offense was led by Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle, who each threw 13 passes in the loss. With that duo, Miami scored just 10 points and couldn’t do enough to outscore the anemic Colts offense.
The Colts are hoping former Giants draft bust Daniel Jones will lead them to more success in 2025. But the upgrade Tagovailoa provides from the Huntley-Boyle duo is way more significant.
Underdogs are usually the better call in Week 1
The NFL is an unpredictable beast that churns out unexpected results on a regular basis.
Since 2019, favorites are 42-54-1 (43.8 percent) against the spread in season openers, via Yahoo Sports. That’s in spite of an unusually chalky Week 1 last year where favorites were 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread. This season is already bucking that trend with the heavily favored Philadelphia Eagles barely holding off the Dallas Cowboys in a 24-20 win Thursday night.
Miami isn’t a significant underdog, but you should take the points where you can get them in Week 1.
This article originally appeared on Dolphins Wire: 3 reasons the Dolphins will cover the spread vs. the Colts in Week 1
Reporting by Adam Stites, Dolphins Wire / Dolphins Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
