President Donald Trump’s approval rating became the elephant in the room, with independent candidate Mike Duggan leaving the race for governor, said Richard Czuba, a Michigan pollster whose surveys documented the former mayor’s rise and fall in recent months.
In an interview Friday, Czuba, founder of the firm Glengariff Group, said he expected voters who were backing Duggan to retreat to their normal political corners.
However, Czuba noted two factors to watch, less than six months before the general election: the Republican president’s weak approval numbers and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s strong approval numbers.
“They are angry with Donald Trump,” Czuba said of Michigan voters.
Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran and the impact of that choice on gas prices might be the galvanizing moment of the 2026 election, Czuba said.
On Thursday, Duggan, who served three terms as Detroit’s mayor, cited both issues as topics that had devoured the public’s interest on the campaign trail, hindering his independent bid. Duggan, a former Democrat, said Democrats appeared to be “surging” because of voter frustration with Trump.
Czuba’s Glengariff Group does polling for both The Detroit News and the Detroit Regional Chamber, which endorsed Duggan.
A Glengariff survey done in late January and early February found Duggan at 30% leading a hypothetical general election matchup with Republican U.S. Rep. John James at 29% and Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson at 28%.
A similar survey, conducted in late April and early May by Glengariff, had Benson at 34%, James at 29% and Duggan at 23%. The former mayor had gone from up 2 points on Benson to down 11.
Meanwhile, the same poll found 57% of those surveyed disapproved of Trump’s job performance, while 52%, a majority, approved of Whitmer’s performance.
Duggan’s supporters, donors and the labor unions and business groups that backed him will now have to decide where to go next.
Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, who’s running against Benson in the Democratic primary, said he’ll work to win over some of the organizations and individuals who had been in Duggan’s coalition.
“I welcome his people,” Swanson said.
State Rep. Alabas Farhat, D-Dearborn, who was viewed as a potential Duggan ally, is a lawmaker to watch in the coming weeks. Likewise, among the union groups now in play are the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights and the Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union.
Chris DeWitt, a longtime Democratic consultant, labeled Duggan’s exit a huge boost for Benson’s campaign. DeWitt suggested Duggan’s failed run also could have the effect of dissuading other independent candidates for governor in the future.
“Duggan’s running was the best chance in modern history, certainly in Michigan, for an independent to make a serious run for governor,” DeWitt said. “I don’t know of anyone else of his stature who would even consider it down the road.”
Engler suggests Duggan for University of Michigan president
The University of Michigan Board of Regents should consider Duggan to lead the Ann Arbor university, Republican former Gov. John Engler told The Detroit News.
The university is unlikely to find a traditional candidate through normal recruitment strategies because of drama and instability on the board, Engler said.
Engler made the comment while pitching a constitutional amendment requiring UM, Michigan State University and Wayne State University boards to be appointed, not elected.
“I support Mike Duggan to be president of UM,” Engler said Friday. “I don’t think they can attract a better candidate out of the traditional university world.”
Engler, who was Michigan’s governor from 1991 to 2003, served as MSU’s interim president in 2018 and early 2019 during the fallout of the Larry Nassar sexual abuse scandal.
Rebandt says he’ll fight disqualification
Pastor Ralph Rebandt, a Republican candidate for governor, is vowing to fight his potential disqualification from the August primary ballot all the way to the Michigan Supreme Court.
On Wednesday, the Michigan Bureau of Elections said Rebandt hadn’t met the 15,000-signature threshold.
The bureau sampled 750 of his petition signatures. He needed 618 of the sample to be valid to make the Aug. 4 ballot. However, only 533 of the sample were found to be valid. Of the 217 signatures ruled out, 110 came from people who weren’t registered to vote, 36 didn’t match the signature on file with the state, and 22 listed the voter at an invalid city or township.
The Board of State Canvassers will make a final decision on Rebandt’s eligibility on Thursday.
Rebandt, who made the primary ballot four years ago, said the wide majority of his signatures were gathered by volunteers.
“This whole signature verification really has to be changed,” Rebandt said. “Because it keeps average people off the ballot.”
Thanedar recycles 2024 challenge to get rid of ’26 opponent
Two-term U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Detroit, looks to be facing down a head-to-head matchup in the August Democratic primary election with state Rep. Donovan McKinney of Detroit.
Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett last week disqualified from the August primary ballot four U.S. House hopefuls in the 13th District that covers parts of Detroit, Downriver communities and the Grosse Pointes, including Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters, who was aiming to challenge Thanedar.
Waters, who came in second in the 2024 primary behind Thanedar, said she planned to appeal.
County records show that Waters was removed due to insufficient signatures submitted, as were another Democrat, John Goci of Northville, and two Republicans, Raphiel King and Martell Bivings.
Garrett’s staff not only disqualified King but recommended that he be referred to the Attorney General’s Office or the Secretary of State for an investigation into forged or fraudulent signatures. King’s petitions were challenged by the only GOP candidate left on the ballot, T.P. Nykoriak.
Thanedar challenged both McKinney and Goci’s petitions, alleging that their signatures were insufficient in number, fraudulent or duplicates.
Garrett, however, noted that the affidavit that Thanedar attached to his challenge was not related to Goci but an analysis by consultant Mark Grebner that had been recycled from Thanedar’s 2024 challenge to the petitions of former state Sen. Adam Hollier.
38th Michigan senator sworn in
Michigan state Sen. Chedrick Greene, D-Saginaw, was sworn in Thursday after winning a special election on May 5 for a vacant seat in the chamber.
The development means the Senate is now at its full membership for the first time since January 2025, with Democrats slated to hold a 20-18 majority for the final seven months of the year.
Every seat in the Senate, including Greene’s, will be on the ballot again in November.
“It is truly an honor to represent the people of Saginaw, Bay and Midland counties in the state Senate,” Greene said. “As a Marine and a firefighter, I have built my life around service to my country and my community.
“My commitment to helping others drove me to pursue elected office, and I am excited to take that to the next level.”
Greene defeated Republican Jason Tunney of Saginaw in the May 5 special election by about 20 percentage points, 59%-39%. The 35th District seat had been left vacant after former state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Bay City, was sworn in as a member of the U.S. House on Jan. 3, 2025.
KMR bans staff from prediction markets
First-term U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Bay City, has a new office policy barring employees of her congressional office from placing bets using prediction markets. The policy covers the congresswoman herself, according to the announcement.
She noted recent news reports about politicians, campaign staff, military service members and others, netting large profits on prediction markets by using insider information.
“Too many public officials have gotten rich betting on insider information from their jobs. Not in my office,” she said in a statement. “People in mid-Michigan deserve to know we work for them, not our own wallets. That’s why no one on my team — including me — will bet on prediction markets.”
McDonald Rivet’s policy stated it “does not limit an employee’s ability to gamble in lawful, non-political activities, such as sports, in their personal capacity.”
GOP ads to target Savit in AG race
The Republican Attorneys General Association plans to target Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit, the Democratic nominee running to be the state’s next top law enforcement officer, in the association’s initial ad reservations.
Savit is expected to face Republican nominee and Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd in the November election.
The Republican Attorneys General Association announced Thursday that it is reserving about $11 million in initial fall television ads across six attorney general races, including Michigan.
The initial reservations, the group said, focus on areas where “Democrats have embraced candidates and policies that put ideological activism ahead of public safety.”
“Democrats should understand that Republican AGs are not playing defense,” RAGA Executive Director Adam Piper said in a statement. “We are taking the fight directly to them, and we are going to make sure voters know exactly what is at stake in these races.”
Tweet of the Week
The Insider report’s “Tweet of the Week,” recognizing a social media post that was worthy of attention or, possibly, just a laugh, from the previous week goes to state Rep. Will Snyder, D-Muskegon.
Snyder managed to combine two of the Michigan House’s long-running story lines in a 14-word post on X Wednesday night to describe state Rep. Karen Whitsett’s decision to return to the House after a months-long absence to vote on a sweeping property tax cut.
“Michigan’s most famous ghost employee has been found! That wasn’t on the BINGO card,” Snyder wrote.
House Republicans, under Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, have focused on so-called “ghost employees” in the state budget, criticizing positions that were funded but unfilled.
In her own social media post, Whitsett, D-Detroit, said, in part, “And I will never allow anyone to take my vote for granted. Last night, my district was in that room. Michigan families were on that board. And my YES vote mattered.”
Whitsett herself acknowledged that Snyder’s post was “funny” on Thursday.
cmauger@detroitnews.com
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This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Insider: Here’s how Mike Duggan’s exit changes the governor’s race
Reporting by Craig Mauger, Beth LeBlanc and Melissa Nann Burke, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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