Detroit — This still could go a bunch of different ways, but the decision point is upon us.
Well, it’s upon manager AJ Hinch, pitching coach Chris Fetter and president Scott Harris, probably not in that exact order.
By the end of this week, the Tigers are going to start integrating three of their top line starting pitchers back into the rotation, which is going to force at least one productive pitcher out of the rotation.
“We will work our way through slotting guys back in and getting them ready as soon as possible,” Hinch said before the Tigers walked off the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, 5-4. “But it’s not as simple as just disrupting everything and inserting three-fifths or three-sixths of a rotation, if we go to a six-man rotation.
“The best thing for these guys and the best thing for our team is for them to get their outings in and we’ll address what is needed when it comes.”
If we may, let’s take an unofficial stab at how this may look.
The rotation for the series against the Twins, which starts Tuesday, is set: Troy Melton, Framber Valdez and Keider Montero.
The intrigue comes on the next road trip, which begins in Cleveland Friday and ends with three games in Houston next week.
Two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is on track to return to the rotation on Friday. Providing there were no post-start issues, he has checked every performance box after pitching five innings in a rehab start at High-A West Michigan on Sunday. His velocity was game-ready (97 to 99 mph) and he had command of all his secondary pitches.
He threw 54 pitches in the game and 15 more in the bullpen afterward, reaching his volume goal.
The Tigers could choose between Skubal and Jack Flaherty for the series opener. Both would be on regular rest. Whoever doesn’t pitch Friday would start on Saturday.
Casey Mize, who is scheduled to make a rehab start on Tuesday with Low-A Lakeland in Clearwater, would be on track to return for the series finale in Cleveland on Sunday.
Again, though, the Tigers could also start Melton on regular rest.
If Mize starts in Cleveland, then Melton would open the series in Houston.
The second and third games of that series could get very interesting with both Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez possibly starting against their former team.
But that hasn’t even been written in pencil, yet.
Verlander, whose return will require a corresponding move on the 40-man roster, is scheduled for a second rehab start with Triple-A Toledo on Wednesday. He will need to get through that, pushing his innings toward six and his pitch-count over 80, before a decision is made.
If the pitching plan ends up being Melton, Verlander and Valdez in Houston, then the Tigers will have had to trim one or two pitchers from the present rotation.
Hinch has sounded more open to using a six-man rotation, at least through the month of June when the Tigers will play 20 games in 21 days.
“When you have those longer stretches, you can look at that (six-man rotation) as a viable option to keep starters fresh,” Hinch said. “It allows you to push them a little more, push them a little deeper in games. There is an advantage to considering that.”
There is also the disadvantage of leaving yourself an arm short in the bullpen.
If the Tigers do keep six starters, one solution would be to move Montero to the bullpen. He’s excelled in that role before and would add a much-needed power arm at the back end of games.
It’s not necessarily fair, of course. Montero has pitched well enough to maintain his spot in the rotation. And with that in mind, given the fragility of the rotation’s health this season, the Tigers could also deem it wise to send Montero to Triple A and keep him stretched out to start.
Ty Madden has already been moved from the rotation to the bullpen. He, too, might be ultimately sent back to the rotation in Toledo.
It’s hard to imagine, though, the Tigers not wanting to keep Montero’s arm in the big-league mix.
For the purpose of this discussion, let’s envision a rotation of Skubal, Flaherty, Mize, Melton, Verlander and Valdez.
That would leave a seven-man bullpen featuring Kenley Jansen (who is throwing a rehab game this week), Will Vest, Kyle Finnegan, Drew Anderson, Tyler Holton and Montero, plus one out of the following group — lefties Drew Sommers and Enmanuel De Jesus, and righties Beau Brieske, Brenan Hanifee and Madden.
The actual plan will unfold eventually this week.
But this is a daunting exercise, even in the no-consequence world of educated speculation. To do it for real, impacting not only the success of the ballclub but the lives and careers of the players involved, is a tough duty.
Chris.McCosky@detroitnews.com
@cmccosky
Twins at Tigers
Series: Three games at Comerica Park
First pitch: Tuesday-Wednesday – 6:40 p.m.; Thursday – 1:10 p.m.
TV/radio: Tuesday-Thursday — Detroit Sports Net, 97.1, 107.9
Probables: Tuesday – RHP Taj Bradley (5-2, 3.56) vs. RHP Troy Melton (2-0, 1.74); Wednesday – TBD vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.21); Thursday – RHP Zebby Matthews (2-3, 4.15) vs. RHP Keider Montero (2-4, 3.95).
Scouting report
Bradley, Twins: He bullied the Tigers at Target Field on April 7, striking out 10 in 6.1 innings. He had the hitters in between his 96-97 mph four-seamer (10 called strikes) and his splitter (nine whiffs on 15 swings). On the year, he’s getting 36.5% whiff with his cutter and 44.7% whiff with his splitter. But he’s coming off two rough starts, allowing four runs in both and not finishing the fifth inning in either. He walked five White Sox in his last outing.
Melton, Tigers: In his three starts, he’s holding hitters under .160 with each of his four primary pitches — four-seam, slider, cutter and splitter. Not too shabby. He’s not giving up a lot of hits or hard contact (39% hard-hit rate). He was in machine-mode against the Rays last time out, romping through eight innings on 94 pitches, not allowing a hit and facing the minimum in his final six innings of work.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: An educated guess how Tigers will reintegrate Skubal, Mize, Verlander
Reporting by Chris McCosky, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Chris McCosky, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
